Jagiellonia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Jagiellonia72.2%fair odds 1.39
Draw16.7%fair odds 6.00
Ararat-Armenia11.1%fair odds 8.98
Expected goals2.57 – 0.94total 3.51
Likeliest score2–09.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Ararat-Armenia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Jagiellonia ↓ · Ararat-Armenia → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Jagiellonia goals, columns Ararat-Armenia goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–09.9%10.12
- 2–19.3%10.78
- 3–08.5%11.80
- 3–18.0%12.57
- 1–17.6%13.18
- 1–07.3%13.71
- 4–05.5%18.34
- 4–15.1%19.53
- 2–24.4%22.98
- 3–23.7%26.78
Winning margin
30.4%
Jagiellonia by 3+
fair 3.29
20.7%
Jagiellonia by 2
fair 4.84
21.2%
Jagiellonia by 1
fair 4.73
16.7%
Draw
fair 6.00
7.5%
Ararat-Armenia by 1
fair 13.38
2.7%
Ararat-Armenia by 2
fair 36.38
0.9%
Ararat-Armenia by 3+
fair 109.49
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
28%5+
Jagiellonia goals
8%0
20%1
25%2
22%3
26%4+
Ararat-Armenia goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia win | 72.2% | 72.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 16.7% | 16.5% | +0.1 pp |
| Ararat-Armenia win | 11.1% | 11.2% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 68.1% | 69.0% | -0.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.6% | 57.4% | -0.8 pp |
| Expected goals Jagiellonia | 2.57 | 2.60 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Ararat-Armenia | 0.94 | 0.96 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Jagiellonia win72.2%1.39
- Draw16.7%6.00
- Ararat-Armenia win11.1%8.98
- Double chance Jagiellonia or draw88.9%1.13
- Double chance Jagiellonia or Ararat-Armenia83.3%1.20
- Double chance Ararat-Armenia or draw27.8%3.60
- Draw no bet Jagiellonia86.6%1.15
- Draw no bet Ararat-Armenia13.4%7.48
Goals
- Over 0.596.6%1.03
- Over 1.586.9%1.15
- Over 2.568.1%1.47
- Over 3.546.6%2.15
- Over 4.527.7%3.61
- Under 1.513.1%7.65
- Under 2.531.9%3.14
- Under 3.553.4%1.87
Both teams to score
- Yes56.6%1.77
- No43.4%2.31
- Yes and over 2.549.0%2.04
- Jagiellonia win and yes36.4%2.74
- Draw and yes13.3%7.52
- Ararat-Armenia win and yes6.9%14.55
Team goals
- Jagiellonia over 0.592.4%1.08
- Jagiellonia over 1.572.7%1.37
- Jagiellonia over 2.547.5%2.11
- Ararat-Armenia over 0.560.9%1.64
- Ararat-Armenia over 1.524.2%4.14
- Ararat-Armenia over 2.56.9%14.41
- Jagiellonia clean sheet39.1%2.56
- Ararat-Armenia clean sheet7.6%13.11
- Jagiellonia win to nil35.7%2.80
- Ararat-Armenia win to nil4.3%23.47
Handicap
- Jagiellonia −1.551.0%1.96
- Jagiellonia −2.530.4%3.29
- Ararat-Armenia +1.549.0%2.04
- Ararat-Armenia +2.569.6%1.44
- Ararat-Armenia −1.53.7%27.31
- Jagiellonia +1.596.3%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored26
Favourite won61.5%
Avg chance given to result43.7%
1X2 Brier0.522
Over 2.5 called right65.4%
BTTS called right46.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 39.4% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 8 | 44.9% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 54.9% | 75.0% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 64.0% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 26 of 26 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5218 | 0.5440 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.7% | 45.0% |
| Favourite won | 61.5% | 61.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 8 of 26 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.