Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 20:00 Stadion Miejski, Białystok

Jagiellonia 25th · 0 pts · 1 played L

3–1Full time

Ararat-Armenia 32nd · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Jagiellonia were clear favourites.

Jagiellonia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 7). Absences weigh more on Jagiellonia. Jagiellonia were without N. Wojtuszek. Jagiellonia had 29 days of rest, Ararat-Armenia 29.1 and had to travel 2,160 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel2,160 kmRest days29 · 29.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Jagiellonia73%

Draw16%

Ararat-Armenia12%

Expected goals 2.57 – 0.94

Jagiellonia70%

Draw18%

Ararat-Armenia12%

Expected goals 2.25 – 0.79

Jagiellonia73%

Draw16%

Ararat-Armenia11%

Expected goals 2.60 – 0.92

Jagiellonia65%

Draw19%

Ararat-Armenia16%

Expected goals 2.30 – 1.05

Jagiellonia73%

Draw16%

Ararat-Armenia12%

Expected goals 2.60 – 0.96

Over 2.5 68% Both score 56% Likeliest score 2–0

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Białystok)

10°CDrizzle

Precipitation 0.2 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 92%

Referee · GreeceAnastasios Papapetrou

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 57

Team strength

Jagiellonia

Ararat-Armenia

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 7

31 Current StrengthIn forecast 7

27 AttackIn forecast 8

28 DefenceIn forecast 8

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Jagiellonia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ararat-Armenia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Jagiellonia

Ararat-Armenia

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.46 xGVia Att/Def —

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.44 Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.67 ShotsContext —

7.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

49% On target shareContext 26%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext —

60% Box shareContext —

11% ConversionContext 16%

1.75 OffsidesContext —

15.17 Shots allowedContext —

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

5.22 BlocksContext 5.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —

75% Save rateContext 38%

49% PossessionIn forecast 46%

413 PassesContext —

336 Accurate passesContext —

81% Pass accuracyContext —

6.97 Team ratingContext —

13.44 FoulsContext 10.25

13.44 Fouls sufferedContext 15.25

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Jagiellonia L

Rest29 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 41 · 0 pts vs 1.0 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected

L16 SepA · Olympiakos Piraeus1–20.7 xPts

Ararat-Armenia L

Rest29.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel2,160 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 34 · 0 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected

L16 SepH · Sparta Praha1–40.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Jagiellonia	Ararat-Armenia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	29UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep	29.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,160 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Jagiellonia Confirmed XI

4-4-2

50S. Abramowicz(G)

20B. Wdowik 4Y. Kobayashi 5Bernardo Vital 27Rodrigo Conceição

7K. Szmyt 19A. Klynge 6T. Romanczuk 72K. Jóźwiak

30O. Sow 11Jesús Imaz

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Ararat-Armenia Confirmed XI

3-4-3

98João Bravim(G)

5Luis Felipe 17M. Carlier 43Bruno Wilson

16E. Grigoryan 20A. Tera 8J. Balanta 2Hugo Oliveira

11Z. Banjaqui 91Sandro Lima 77A. Serobyan

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Jagiellonia Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −8.9% · Defence line −6.8% of weighted minutes

MID N. Wojtuszek Starter 6.71 Att −7.8% Def −6.1%
MID D. Drachal Rotation 6.55 Att −0.8% Def −0.6%
ATT D. Rallis Depth 6.57 Att −0.3%
MID Zachary Zalewski Depth 6.54

1 without recent minutes (no impact): C. Polak

Ararat-Armenia

Attack line −0.1% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes

ATT P. Ayongo Depth — Att −0.1%

Total impact vs full squads

Jagiellonia-0.7 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Ararat-Armenia+0.4 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Jagiellonia · Home No home games yet this season.

Ararat-Armenia · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Jagiellonia	Ararat-Armenia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	4.00
Match goals	3.00	5.00	3.51
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	68%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Jagiellonia	Ararat-Armenia	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.33
Conceded per game	1.00	1.44
Match goals	3.00	2.78	3.51
Over 1.5	100%	89%
Over 2.5	80%	44%	68%
Over 3.5	20%	22%
Both teams scored	80%	56%	56%
Clean sheets	20%	33%
Failed to score	0%	11%
Games	5	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Jagiellonia	Ararat-Armenia	League
Corners
Corners won	—	2.00
Corners conceded	—	13.00
Match total	—	15.00	9.67
Over 8.5	—	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	—	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	—	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	3.00
Opponent cards	2.00	0.00
Match total	5.00	3.00	3.71
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Jagiellonia	Ararat-Armenia	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.00
Corners conceded	4.29	8.40
Match total	9.29	12.40	9.67
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	80% 4/5
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	80% 4/5
Over 10.5	14% 1/7	60% 3/5
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.90
Opponent cards	2.60	2.90
Match total	4.40	4.80	3.71
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anastasios Papapetrou Greece · 57 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.16league 3.58

Red cards0.18league 0.12

Cards 5+40%league 38%

Fouls26.8league 24.7

Penalties0.35league 0.23

Home wins40%league 38%

Jagiellonia

No previous matches with this referee.

Ararat-Armenia

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.