Juventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Juventus had 8.1 days of rest, AC Milan 7 and had to travel 125 km.
Away travel125 kmRest days8.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Juventus46%
Draw27%
AC Milan27%
Juventus46%
Draw26%
AC Milan27%
Juventus46%
Draw27%
AC Milan27%
Juventus39%
Draw28%
AC Milan34%
Juventus46%
Draw26%
AC Milan28%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 65
Team strength
Juventus
AC Milan
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
57
AttackIn forecast
72
76
DefenceIn forecast
69
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
JuventusAC Milan
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
0.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
100%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
16.60
ShotsContext
13.80
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
35%
On target shareContext
33%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
54%
Box shareContext
76%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.25
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.60
Shots allowedContext
8.60
2.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.00
BlocksContext
3.75
1.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
54%
Save rateContext
75%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
494
PassesContext
476
426
Accurate passesContext
419
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.99
10.80
FoulsContext
9.60
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.74
+0.72
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
100%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
16.20
ShotsContext
13.20
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
34%
On target shareContext
33%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
62%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.00
Shots allowedContext
9.60
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.40
BlocksContext
2.78
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
62%
Save rateContext
77%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
466
PassesContext
479
402
Accurate passesContext
424
86%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.99
12.00
FoulsContext
10.20
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Juventus
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AC Milan
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel125 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Juventus |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 125 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.7 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Juventus
Confirmed XI
16M. Di Gregorio(G)
6L. Kelly
24D. Rugani
4F. Gatti
27A. Cambiaso
5M. Locatelli
22W. McKennie
15P. Kalulu
10K. Yıldız
7Francisco Conceição
30J. David
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
33D. Bartesaghi
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
56A. Saelemaekers
11C. Pulišić
7S. Giménez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Juventus
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Juventus-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- AC Milan+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Juventus · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
AC Milan · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Juventus wins4 draws2 AC Milan wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored13%
Clean sheets63% · 63%
- 18 Jan 2025Juventus2–0AC Milan
- 23 Nov 2024AC Milan0–0Juventus
- 27 Apr 2024Juventus0–0AC Milan
- 22 Oct 2023AC Milan0–1Juventus
- 28 May 2023Juventus0–1AC Milan
- 8 Oct 2022AC Milan2–0Juventus
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Juventus | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Juventus | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Juventus | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 9.25 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.00 | 3.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Juventus | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 9.22 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.50 | 3.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 65 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 3.61
Red cards0.14league 0.14
Cards 5+40%league 36%
Fouls24.0league 26.3
Penalties0.37league 0.24
Home wins45%league 39%
Juventus6 with this referee
Record2-4-0
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D27 Oct 24A · Inter4–42
- D1 Sep 24H · AS Roma0–02
- D10 Mar 24H · Atalanta2–20
- W7 Jan 24A · Salernitana2–15
- D26 Nov 23H · Inter1–12
AC Milan6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D15 Dec 24H · Genoa0–00
- W14 Jan 24H · AS Roma3–12
- W24 Apr 22A · Lazio2–14
- W5 Feb 22A · Inter2–15
- L20 Nov 21A · Fiorentina3–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Juventus5 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
AC Milan5 games · scored 9 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
