Juventus vs AS Roma – 20 Dec 2025

Serie A Gameweek 16 Sat, Dec 20 · 19:45 Allianz Stadium, Torino

Juventus 5th · 26 pts · 15 played DDWLW

2–1Full time

AS Roma 4th · 30 pts · 15 played WWLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Juventus had 6 days of rest, AS Roma 5 and had to travel 526 km.

Away travel526 kmRest days6 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 3

Juventus43%

Draw28%

AS Roma30%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.16

Juventus43%

Draw27%

AS Roma30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Juventus42%

Draw28%

AS Roma30%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.15

Juventus35%

Draw28%

AS Roma37%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.30

Juventus43%

Draw27%

AS Roma30%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.22

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalySimone Sozza

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.46
Matches 83

Team strength

Juventus

AS Roma

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

57 AttackIn forecast 72

76 DefenceIn forecast 75

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Juventus

AS Roma

1.27 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.07

0.93 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.53

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

0.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

73% Scored inContext 67%

33% Clean sheetsContext 47%

15.13 ShotsContext 13.07

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

33% On target shareContext 36%

9.27 Shots in the boxContext 9.21

60% Box shareContext 68%

8% ConversionContext 8%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.47 Shots allowedContext 10.67

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.73

2.87 BlocksContext 2.75

2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.27

71% Save rateContext 88%

57% PossessionIn forecast 58%

502 PassesContext 476

436 Accurate passesContext 398

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.91

13.00 FoulsContext 14.40

10.73 Fouls sufferedContext 14.87

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

0.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

90% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

17.20 ShotsContext 12.60

6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

38% On target shareContext 35%

11.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.33

61% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.88

9.70 Shots allowedContext 11.00

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.40 BlocksContext 3.22

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

83% Save rateContext 88%

55% PossessionIn forecast 55%

512 PassesContext 473

445 Accurate passesContext 397

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.95

13.40 FoulsContext 13.10

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Juventus

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,013 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AS Roma

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel526 km4,761 km in 14d

Schedule load31%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Juventus	AS Roma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 31
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Dec	5Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	526 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,013 km	4,761 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	7	9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Di Gregorio(G)

6L. Kelly 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

27A. Cambiaso 19K. Thuram 5M. Locatelli 22W. McKennie

10K. Yıldız 7Francisco Conceição

20I. Openda

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

2D. Rensch 24J. Ziółkowski 23G. Mancini

43Wesley 17K. Koné 4B. Cristante 19M. Çelik

7L. Pellegrini 18M. Soulé

21P. Dybala

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Juventus Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AS Roma Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Juventus+0.7 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
AS Roma-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Juventus · Home 2.14points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-0
Scored: 1.71
Conceded: 0.86

AS Roma · Away 2.14points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 5-0-2
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 0.57

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 13 this season

Opponent	Juventus	AS Roma
Bologna	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Napoli	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 H
Cagliari	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Fiorentina	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 A
Torino	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 H
Cremonese	W 2–1 A	W 3–1 A
Udinese	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 H
Lazio	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 A
Como	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 H
AC Milan	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 A
Verona	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 H
Inter	W 4–3 H	L 0–1 H
Parma	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 H
Points	22 of 39 · 1.69 per game	24 of 39 · 1.85 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Juventus wins4 draws1 AS Roma wins

Goals per game1.13 – 0.88 Over 2.513% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 25%

6 Apr 2025AS Roma1–1Juventus
1 Sep 2024Juventus0–0AS Roma
5 May 2024AS Roma1–1Juventus
30 Dec 2023Juventus1–0AS Roma
5 Mar 2023AS Roma1–0Juventus
27 Aug 2022Juventus1–1AS Roma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Juventus	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.27	1.07
Conceded per game	0.93	0.53
Match goals	2.20	1.60	2.59
Over 1.5	67%	33%
Over 2.5	33%	20%	48%
Over 3.5	13%	7%
Both teams scored	53%	20%	53%
Clean sheets	33%	47%
Failed to score	27%	33%
Games	15	15

	Juventus	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.50
Conceded per game	0.90	0.60
Match goals	1.90	2.10	2.59
Over 1.5	60%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	48%
Over 3.5	10%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Juventus	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	4.69	5.20
Corners conceded	4.46	3.47
Match total	9.15	8.67	8.83
Over 8.5	38% 5/13	47% 7/15
Over 9.5	38% 5/13	27% 4/15
Over 10.5	31% 4/13	27% 4/15
Cards
Cards	1.67	2.27
Opponent cards	2.47	2.40
Match total	4.14	4.67	4.02
Over 3.5	60% 9/15	67% 10/15
Over 4.5	47% 7/15	53% 8/15

	Juventus	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	5.63	5.10
Corners conceded	4.50	3.70
Match total	10.13	8.80	8.83
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.70
Opponent cards	2.40	1.80
Match total	3.80	4.50	4.02
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 83 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.23league 3.89

Red cards0.16league 0.17

Cards 5+42%league 38%

Fouls24.8league 26.0

Penalties0.46league 0.31

Home wins37%league 40%

Juventus8 with this referee

Record3-3-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 3

D27 Sep 25H · Atalanta1–10
L9 Mar 25H · Atalanta0–41
W9 Nov 24H · Torino2–01
W30 Dec 23H · AS Roma1–01
D30 Apr 23A · Bologna1–12

AS Roma14 with this referee

Record7-3-4 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.4 Pens for · against3 · 3 Reds1

W21 Sep 25A · Lazio1–01
L12 May 25A · Atalanta1–20
D13 Apr 25A · Lazio1–12
W26 Jan 25A · Udinese2–12
L27 Oct 24A · Fiorentina1–55

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.