Juventus vs Bologna – 19 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 33 Sun, Apr 19 · 19:45 Allianz Stadium, Torino

Juventus 4th · 60 pts · 32 played WWDWW

2–0Full time

Bologna 8th · 48 pts · 32 played LWLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus were clear favourites.

Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Juventus. Juventus had 8 days of rest, Bologna 3 and had to travel 295 km.

Away travel295 kmRest days8 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3

Juventus61%

Draw23%

Bologna16%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.89

Juventus57%

Draw24%

Bologna19%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.98

Juventus61%

Draw23%

Bologna16%

Expected goals 1.92 – 0.89

Juventus53%

Draw25%

Bologna21%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.00

Juventus62%

Draw22%

Bologna16%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.94

Over 2.5 53% Both score 51% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 108

Team strength

Juventus

Bologna

72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

57 AttackIn forecast 35

76 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Juventus

Bologna

1.72 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.31

0.91 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.16

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

0.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

81% Scored inContext 75%

41% Clean sheetsContext 31%

15.97 ShotsContext 12.91

5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.87

37% On target shareContext 29%

10.28 Shots in the boxContext 8.19

64% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.04 OffsidesContext 2.42

10.38 Shots allowedContext 9.84

2.87 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.77

3.23 BlocksContext 2.86

2.26 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.69

74% Save rateContext 68%

57% PossessionIn forecast 56%

516 PassesContext 435

448 Accurate passesContext 362

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.09 FoulsContext 12.88

9.84 Fouls sufferedContext 14.25

1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.84

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.60 ShotsContext 13.30

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

37% On target shareContext 30%

12.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

71% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.40

13.70 Shots allowedContext 10.60

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.00 BlocksContext 3.11

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

66% Save rateContext 55%

52% PossessionIn forecast 56%

473 PassesContext 468

400 Accurate passesContext 393

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.80

11.00 FoulsContext 14.20

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Juventus

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km339 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bologna

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel295 km2,631 km in 14d

Schedule load28%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Juventus	Bologna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 28
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Apr	3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 16 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	295 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	339 km	2,631 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 2	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Di Gregorio(G)

6L. Kelly 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

27A. Cambiaso 22W. McKennie 5M. Locatelli 2E. Holm

13J. Boga 7Francisco Conceição

30J. David

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13F. Ravaglia(G)

33Juan Miranda 26J. Lucumí 5E. Helland 20N. Zortea

4T. Pobega 8R. Freuler

28N. Cambiaghi 23S. Sohm 7R. Orsolini

9S. Castro

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Juventus Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bologna Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Juventus-0.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Bologna+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Juventus · Home 2.06points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 9-6-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.81

Bologna · Away 1.75points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 8-4-4
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 1.19

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Juventus	Bologna
Atalanta	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 H
Genoa	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A	L 2–3 AW 2–1 H
Sassuolo	D 1–1 HW 3–0 A	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H
Udinese	W 1–0 AW 3–1 H	W 1–0 HW 3–0 A
Pisa	W 4–0 HW 2–0 A	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H
AS Roma	D 3–3 AW 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Como	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Inter	L 2–3 AW 4–3 H	L 1–3 A
Lazio	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Parma	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H	L 0–1 HW 3–1 A
Napoli	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A	W 2–0 H
Cagliari	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 A
Cremonese	W 5–0 HW 2–1 A	W 2–1 AL 1–3 H
Lecce	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Fiorentina	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A
Torino	D 0–0 H	W 2–1 AD 0–0 H
AC Milan	D 0–0 H	L 0–3 HL 0–1 A
Verona	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A
Points	57 of 93 · 1.84 per game	48 of 93 · 1.55 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Juventus wins6 draws0 Bologna wins

Goals per game1.67 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

14 Dec 2025Bologna0–1Juventus
4 May 2025Bologna1–1Juventus
7 Dec 2024Juventus2–2Bologna
20 May 2024Bologna3–3Juventus
27 Aug 2023Juventus1–1Bologna
30 Apr 2023Bologna1–1Juventus

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Juventus	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.72	1.31
Conceded per game	0.91	1.16
Match goals	2.63	2.47	2.80
Over 1.5	75%	72%
Over 2.5	44%	47%	53%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	47%	47%	51%
Clean sheets	41%	31%
Failed to score	19%	25%
Games	32	32

	Juventus	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.30
Conceded per game	1.20	1.60
Match goals	3.20	2.90	2.80
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Juventus	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	4.42
Corners conceded	4.03	4.26
Match total	9.13	8.68	8.71
Over 8.5	47% 14/30	48% 15/31
Over 9.5	37% 11/30	39% 12/31
Over 10.5	27% 8/30	32% 10/31
Cards
Cards	1.44	2.03
Opponent cards	2.13	2.13
Match total	3.57	4.16	3.90
Over 3.5	53% 17/32	56% 18/32
Over 4.5	34% 11/32	47% 15/32

	Juventus	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	4.30
Corners conceded	4.60	4.30
Match total	9.30	8.60	8.71
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.10
Opponent cards	2.00	1.50
Match total	4.10	3.60	3.90
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 108 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.87league 3.72

Red cards0.19league 0.19

Cards 5+37%league 35%

Fouls23.9league 24.9

Penalties0.24league 0.30

Home wins44%league 40%

Juventus12 with this referee

Record6-4-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 0

W14 Mar 26A · Udinese1–01
W25 Jan 26H · Napoli3–01
W16 Feb 25H · Inter1–01
D29 Dec 24H · Fiorentina2–23
D27 Apr 24H · AC Milan0–00

Bologna5 with this referee

Record3-0-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 1

W15 Jan 26A · Verona3–22
L13 Apr 25A · Atalanta0–21
W27 Feb 25H · AC Milan2–11
W18 Jan 25H · Monza3–11
L21 Apr 23A · Verona1–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.