Juventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were clear favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 26). Juventus had 7 days of rest, Cagliari 7.1 and had to travel 660 km.
Away travel660 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Juventus69%
Draw20%
Cagliari11%
Juventus70%
Draw19%
Cagliari11%
Juventus68%
Draw20%
Cagliari11%
Juventus62%
Draw23%
Cagliari15%
Juventus71%
Draw18%
Cagliari11%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
RefereeValerio Crezzini
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 6
Team strength
Juventus
Cagliari
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
57
AttackIn forecast
31
76
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
JuventusCagliari
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.92
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
67%
Scored inContext
58%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
16.42
ShotsContext
9.50
5.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.55
33%
On target shareContext
34%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.27
61%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.56
OffsidesContext
2.22
10.83
Shots allowedContext
13.00
2.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.92
3.00
BlocksContext
3.80
1.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.91
65%
Save rateContext
74%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
499
PassesContext
355
432
Accurate passesContext
284
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.75
FoulsContext
14.83
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
14.67
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.42
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
50%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.60
ShotsContext
9.00
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
39%
On target shareContext
36%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.22
63%
Box shareContext
62%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.57
12.20
Shots allowedContext
13.40
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.50
BlocksContext
3.88
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
73%
Save rateContext
72%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
470
PassesContext
360
403
Accurate passesContext
286
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.73
14.80
FoulsContext
15.10
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Juventus
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km634 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cagliari
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel660 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Juventus |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 660 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 634 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Juventus
Confirmed XI
1M. Perin(G)
8T. Koopmeiners
6L. Kelly
15P. Kalulu
18F. Kostić
19K. Thuram
5M. Locatelli
22W. McKennie
10K. Yıldız
7Francisco Conceição
9D. Vlahović
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
6S. Luperto
14A. Deiola
28G. Zappa
33A. Obert
90M. Folorunsho
27J. Liteta
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
94S. Esposito
29G. Borrelli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Juventus
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Juventus+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Cagliari-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Juventus · Home
2.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.83
Cagliari · Away
1.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-2
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Juventus | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Udinese | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Lazio | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Como | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Verona | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Inter | W 4–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Genoa | W 1–0 A | D 3–3 H |
| Parma | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 14 of 24 · 1.75 per game | 8 of 24 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Juventus wins2 draws0 Cagliari wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.83
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 23 Feb 2025Cagliari0–1Juventus
- 6 Oct 2024Juventus1–1Cagliari
- 19 Apr 2024Cagliari2–2Juventus
- 11 Nov 2023Juventus2–1Cagliari
- 9 Apr 2022Cagliari1–2Juventus
- 21 Dec 2021Juventus2–0Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Juventus | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.92 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 2.42 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 33% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 42% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Juventus | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Juventus | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.09 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.45 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.54 | 8.60 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 5/11 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 4/11 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 2.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.59 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 7/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 5/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Juventus | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.00 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.60 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Valerio Crezzini 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.83league 3.88
Red cards0.00league 0.13
Cards 5+17%league 38%
Fouls24.2league 25.8
Penalties0.33league 0.32
Home wins50%league 37%
JuventusNo previous matches with this referee.
CagliariNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Juventus12 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Cagliari12 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
