Juventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were clear favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Juventus. Juventus had 7 days of rest, Sassuolo 6.2 and had to travel 236 km.
Away travel236 kmRest days7 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Juventus74%
Draw17%
Sassuolo10%
Juventus68%
Draw20%
Sassuolo12%
Juventus74%
Draw17%
Sassuolo9%
Juventus67%
Draw20%
Sassuolo13%
Juventus75%
Draw15%
Sassuolo9%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marchetti
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 53
Team strength
Juventus
Sassuolo
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
57
AttackIn forecast
41
76
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
JuventusSassuolo
1.76
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
0.97
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.34
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
79%
Scored inContext
66%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
16.21
ShotsContext
10.38
5.97
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
37%
On target shareContext
37%
10.28
Shots in the boxContext
6.86
62%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.16
10.03
Shots allowedContext
14.07
2.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.89
BlocksContext
3.48
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.74
71%
Save rateContext
72%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
516
PassesContext
385
447
Accurate passesContext
318
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.41
FoulsContext
11.55
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.24
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.70
ShotsContext
10.70
6.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
35%
On target shareContext
38%
13.63
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
69%
Box shareContext
74%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.86
OffsidesContext
2.22
12.60
Shots allowedContext
15.60
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.80
BlocksContext
4.40
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
67%
Save rateContext
70%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
481
PassesContext
370
407
Accurate passesContext
305
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.40
FoulsContext
10.40
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Juventus
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km892 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sassuolo
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel236 km694 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Juventus |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 236 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 892 km | 694 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.8 | 13.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Juventus
Confirmed XI
1M. Perin(G)
27A. Cambiaso
6L. Kelly
3Bremer
15P. Kalulu
5M. Locatelli
10K. Yıldız
19K. Thuram
22W. McKennie
7Francisco Conceição
13J. Boga
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
23U. Garcia
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
50D. Bakola
90I. Koné
40A. Vranckx
7C. Volpato
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Juventus
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Juventus-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Sassuolo+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Juventus · Home
2.07points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-1
- Scored
- 2.07
- Conceded
- 0.86
Sassuolo · Away
1.29points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-6
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Juventus | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Pisa | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H |
| AS Roma | D 3–3 AW 2–1 H | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Como | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Inter | L 2–3 AW 4–3 H | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Lazio | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Parma | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Napoli | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Cagliari | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Cremonese | W 5–0 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Lecce | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Bologna | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Torino | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| AC Milan | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Verona | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Genoa | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 50 of 84 · 1.79 per game | 38 of 84 · 1.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Juventus wins0 draws3 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.14
Over 2.586%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets43% · 14%
- 6 Jan 2026Sassuolo0–3Juventus
- 16 Jan 2024Juventus3–0Sassuolo
- 23 Sep 2023Sassuolo4–2Juventus
- 16 Apr 2023Sassuolo1–0Juventus
- 15 Aug 2022Juventus3–0Sassuolo
- 25 Apr 2022Sassuolo1–2Juventus
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Juventus | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.76 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.97 | 1.34 | |
| Match goals | 2.72 | 2.55 | 3.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 55% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 48% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 34% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Juventus | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.60 | 3.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Juventus | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 3.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.55 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 8.34 | 8.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 41% 11/27 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 9/27 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 6/27 | 21% 6/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.31 | 2.45 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.21 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.52 | 4.35 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 15/29 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 10/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Juventus | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.22 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.30 | 8.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.40 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marchetti Italy · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 3.76
Red cards0.23league 0.19
Cards 5+43%league 36%
Fouls25.2league 25.2
Penalties0.25league 0.30
Home wins40%league 39%
Juventus4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 Mar 25H · Verona2–01
- D7 Dec 24H · Bologna2–23
- W1 Apr 23H · Verona1–01
- W7 Jan 23H · Udinese1–01
Sassuolo5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds3
- W1 Mar 26H · Atalanta2–14
- L28 Nov 25A · Como0–21
- W4 May 24H · Inter1–01
- L20 Aug 23H · Atalanta0–20
- L2 Jun 23H · Fiorentina1–35
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Juventus29 games · scored 51 · conceded 28
6
4
0-15
5
3
16-30
7
6
31-45
8
4
46-60
12
4
61-75
13
7
76-90
Sassuolo28 games · scored 34 · conceded 37
7
8
0-15
3
6
16-30
4
3
31-45
6
8
46-60
10
4
61-75
4
8
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 21 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
6
5
76-90
Sassuolo9 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
