Süper Lig Gameweek 20 Sun, Feb 7 · 12:00 Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli
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Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel473 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Kocaelispor—%
Draw—%
Konyaspor—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Kocaeli)

Forecast from 23 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Kocaelispor and Konyaspor. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

KocaelisporKonyaspor
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
22 Current StrengthIn forecast 18
16 AttackIn forecast 13
32 DefenceIn forecast 31
33 Form indexContext 23
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kocaelispor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Konyaspor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

KocaelisporKonyaspor
1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13
0.91 xGVia Att/Def 0.91
1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12
+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.41
75% Scored inContext 38%
38% Clean sheetsContext 38%
11.25 ShotsContext 10.38
4.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.71
32% On target shareContext 31%
6.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.75
55% Box shareContext 64%
10% ConversionContext 5%
1.86 OffsidesContext 2.80
15.50 Shots allowedContext 12.88
4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
2.88 BlocksContext 3.50
3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
80% Save rateContext 80%
48% PossessionIn forecast 49%
401 PassesContext 396
323 Accurate passesContext 325
81% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.75
12.00 FoulsContext 11.88
13.88 Fouls sufferedContext 12.38
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.38
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
0.76 xGVia Att/Def 0.91
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.41
60% Scored inContext 40%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
10.40 ShotsContext 10.80
3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44
29% On target shareContext 29%
5.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.10
56% Box shareContext 65%
9% ConversionContext 5%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.43
14.60 Shots allowedContext 13.80
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.11
2.60 BlocksContext 3.40
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.78
80% Save rateContext 78%
51% PossessionIn forecast 49%
415 PassesContext 391
339 Accurate passesContext 322
82% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.79 Team ratingContext 6.73
12.80 FoulsContext 12.30
14.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kocaelispor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,234 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 33 · 6 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Goztepe1–21.4 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Besiktas1–20.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–01.6 xPts
  • L13 SepA · Galatasaray0–10.5 xPts
  • W6 SepH · Samsunspor1–01.5 xPts
Konyaspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel473 km1,547 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 23 · 5 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Amed0–10.8 xPts
  • D11 OctH · Istanbul Basaksehir0–01.4 xPts
  • D18 SepA · Kasimpasa0–01.1 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Trabzonspor1–01.2 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Erzurumspor FK0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Kocaelispor Konyaspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 31 Jan7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km473 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,234 km1,547 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kocaelispor Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Goztepe (H) 1–2, 18 Oct
83S. Öztaşdelen(G)
3Muharrem Cinan 5E. Ortakaya 2A. Dijksteel 22U. Yıldız
10B. Kutlu 14Show 20Mahamadou Susoho
26Metehan Altunbaş 7Daniel Agyei 11Gonçalo Sousa
Konyaspor Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Amed (A) 0–1, 17 Oct
13B. Güngördü(G)
26A. Masuaku 15C. Awaziem 22R. Baniya 17Y. Andzouana
8M. Jevtović 77M. İbrahimoğlu
7Diogo Gonçalves 66R. Tóth 9D. Türüç
11J. Muleka

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Kocaelispor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Konyaspor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Kocaelispor · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.50
Konyaspor · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-1-3
Scored
0.50
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Kocaelispor wins0 draws1 Konyaspor wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.67 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 29 Aug 2026Konyaspor1–2Kocaelispor
  • 14 Mar 2026Kocaelispor1–2Konyaspor
  • 18 Oct 2025Konyaspor2–3Kocaelispor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goal timing

Kocaelispor8 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
1 0-15
3 2 16-30
2 31-45
1 46-60
1 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Konyaspor8 games · scored 4 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 3 76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
1 0-15
3 2 16-30
2 31-45
1 46-60
1 3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
2 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 61-75
1 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.