Süper Lig Gameweek 20 Sun, Feb 7 · 12:00 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Fenerbahce 3rd · 16 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Samsunspor 17th · 4 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel619 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Fenerbahce—%
Draw—%
Samsunspor—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (İstanbul)

Forecast from 23 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Fenerbahce and Samsunspor. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

FenerbahceSamsunspor
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
62 Current StrengthIn forecast 23
75 AttackIn forecast 15
53 DefenceIn forecast 18
65 Form indexContext 4
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack—
Defense risk—

Samsunspor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FenerbahceSamsunspor
2.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.88
0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.38
2.72 xGVia Att/Def 0.94
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56
+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.06
88% Scored inContext 50%
63% Clean sheetsContext 13%
18.57 ShotsContext 12.38
7.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.43
42% On target shareContext 24%
13.43 Shots in the boxContext 7.25
70% Box shareContext 55%
17% ConversionContext 7%
2.43 OffsidesContext 2.20
13.43 Shots allowedContext 15.50
5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.13
3.29 BlocksContext 3.88
4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88
79% Save rateContext 63%
53% PossessionIn forecast 55%
474 PassesContext 473
414 Accurate passesContext 399
87% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.13 Team ratingContext 6.61
13.00 FoulsContext 12.75
9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20
2.57 xGVia Att/Def 0.94
1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81
-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.06
80% Scored inContext 50%
50% Clean sheetsContext 20%
16.11 ShotsContext 12.00
6.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67
41% On target shareContext 28%
11.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.10
69% Box shareContext 56%
17% ConversionContext 8%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.33 Shots allowedContext 16.50
6.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00
3.56 BlocksContext 4.00
4.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90
74% Save rateContext 65%
49% PossessionIn forecast 56%
429 PassesContext 461
369 Accurate passesContext 385
86% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.00 Team ratingContext 6.66
12.89 FoulsContext 12.50
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km6,399 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Alanyaspor3–02.3 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Aston Villa0–60.8 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Rizespor3–01.9 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Eyüpspor8–02.5 xPts
  • D14 SepA · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–01.9 xPts
Samsunspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel619 km1,694 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 4 · 0 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -6.4 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Kasimpasa1–41.1 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Trabzonspor0–31.2 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Erzurumspor FK0–11.1 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Çorum FK1–51.7 xPts
  • L6 SepA · Kocaelispor0–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Fenerbahce Samsunspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 25Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 31 Jan7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km619 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways6,399 km1,694 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 51 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Alanyaspor (H) 3–0, 17 Oct
31Ederson(G)
22M. Mercan 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi 91N. Kanté
70O. Aydın 11M. Greenwood 17İ. Kahveci
9R. Lukaku
Samsunspor Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Kasimpasa (A) 1–4, 18 Oct
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson 34G. Guarino 22Y. Çift 2J. Mendes
4Elliot Watt 19O. Øhlenschlæger
11E. Kılınç 20Y. Kayan 10T. Coulibaly
18M. Bayo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Fenerbahce Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Samsunspor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
4.00
Conceded
1.00
Samsunspor · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
0.75
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentFenerbahceSamsunspor
Rizespor W 3–0 A W 2–0 A
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Fenerbahce wins4 draws0 Samsunspor wins
Goals per game1.43 – 0.71 Over 2.529% Both scored43% Clean sheets57% · 29%
  • 30 Aug 2026Samsunspor0–2Fenerbahce
  • 8 Mar 2026Fenerbahce3–2Samsunspor
  • 5 Oct 2025Samsunspor0–0Fenerbahce
  • 16 Mar 2025Fenerbahce0–0Samsunspor
  • 20 Oct 2024Samsunspor2–2Fenerbahce
  • 21 Jan 2024Fenerbahce1–1Samsunspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FenerbahceSamsunsporForecast
Scored per game 2.750.88
Conceded per game 0.752.38
Match goals 3.503.25
Over 1.5 88%75%
Over 2.5 75%50%
Over 3.5 25%38%
Both teams scored 38%38%
Clean sheets 63%13%
Failed to score 13%50%
Games88
FenerbahceSamsunsporForecast
Scored per game 2.401.00
Conceded per game 1.202.20
Match goals 3.603.20
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 70%60%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 40%30%
Clean sheets 50%20%
Failed to score 20%50%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FenerbahceSamsunsporLeague
Corners
Corners won6.294.00
Corners conceded3.145.63
Match total9.439.639.12
Over 8.557% 4/763% 5/8
Over 9.543% 3/750% 4/8
Over 10.529% 2/738% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.381.00
Opponent cards1.382.00
Match total2.763.004.04
Over 3.525% 2/838% 3/8
Over 4.525% 2/825% 2/8
FenerbahceSamsunsporLeague
Corners
Corners won5.224.11
Corners conceded4.225.22
Match total9.449.339.12
Over 8.556% 5/956% 5/9
Over 9.544% 4/944% 4/9
Over 10.533% 3/933% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.901.30
Opponent cards1.402.20
Match total3.303.504.04
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Fenerbahce8 games · scored 22 · conceded 6
6 1 0-15
3 16-30
4 2 31-45
4 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
4 1 76-90
Samsunspor8 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
1 5 0-15
1 3 16-30
3 4 31-45
2 46-60
1 4 61-75
1 1 76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 24 · conceded 12
5 2 0-15
5 16-30
4 4 31-45
5 46-60
1 4 61-75
4 2 76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
1 6 0-15
1 3 16-30
4 5 31-45
2 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Fenerbahce Samsunspor Feb 712:00 Goztepe Galatasaray Feb 712:00 Alanyaspor Eyüpspor Feb 712:00 Trabzonspor Amed Feb 712:00 Kasimpasa Istanbul Basaksehir Feb 712:00 Rizespor Gazişehir Gaziantep Feb 712:00 Erzurumspor FK Genclerbirligi Feb 712:00 Çorum FK Besiktas Feb 712:00 Kocaelispor Konyaspor Feb 712:00