KV Mechelen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
KV Mechelen49.9%fair odds 2.00
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.87
St. Truiden24.3%fair odds 4.12
Expected goals1.64 – 1.07total 2.71
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
St. Truiden
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| KV Mechelen ↓ · St. Truiden → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are KV Mechelen goals, columns St. Truiden goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.13
- 1–010.3%9.75
- 2–19.6%10.45
- 2–08.9%11.22
- 0–07.3%13.79
- 0–16.5%15.38
- 1–26.3%15.95
- 3–15.2%19.12
- 2–25.1%19.46
- 3–04.9%20.53
Winning margin
11.4%
KV Mechelen by 3+
fair 8.77
15.4%
KV Mechelen by 2
fair 6.48
23.1%
KV Mechelen by 1
fair 4.33
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.87
14.9%
St. Truiden by 1
fair 6.71
6.6%
St. Truiden by 2
fair 15.10
2.7%
St. Truiden by 3+
fair 36.60
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
KV Mechelen goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
St. Truiden goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen win | 49.9% | 50.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.6% | +0.2 pp |
| St. Truiden win | 24.3% | 24.1% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 51.5% | -0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.7% | 54.0% | -0.4 pp |
| Expected goals KV Mechelen | 1.64 | 1.66 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals St. Truiden | 1.07 | 1.08 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- KV Mechelen win49.9%2.00
- Draw25.8%3.87
- St. Truiden win24.3%4.12
- Double chance KV Mechelen or draw75.7%1.32
- Double chance KV Mechelen or St. Truiden74.2%1.35
- Double chance St. Truiden or draw50.1%2.00
- Draw no bet KV Mechelen67.3%1.49
- Draw no bet St. Truiden32.7%3.06
Goals
- Over 0.592.7%1.08
- Over 1.576.0%1.32
- Over 2.551.0%1.96
- Over 3.528.9%3.46
- Over 4.513.9%7.19
- Under 1.524.0%4.17
- Under 2.549.0%2.04
- Under 3.571.1%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes53.7%1.86
- No46.3%2.16
- Yes and over 2.541.4%2.42
- KV Mechelen win and yes23.0%4.35
- Draw and yes18.6%5.39
- St. Truiden win and yes12.1%8.26
Team goals
- KV Mechelen over 0.580.6%1.24
- KV Mechelen over 1.548.8%2.05
- KV Mechelen over 2.522.7%4.41
- St. Truiden over 0.565.8%1.52
- St. Truiden over 1.529.1%3.43
- St. Truiden over 2.59.4%10.59
- KV Mechelen clean sheet34.2%2.93
- St. Truiden clean sheet19.4%5.15
- KV Mechelen win to nil26.9%3.72
- St. Truiden win to nil12.2%8.22
Handicap
- KV Mechelen −1.526.8%3.72
- KV Mechelen −2.511.4%8.77
- St. Truiden +1.573.2%1.37
- St. Truiden +2.588.6%1.13
- St. Truiden −1.59.4%10.69
- KV Mechelen +1.590.6%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored73
Favourite won45.2%
Avg chance given to result37.9%
1X2 Brier0.618
Over 2.5 called right56.2%
BTTS called right52.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 38.6% | 21.4% |
| 40–50% | 38 | 44.9% | 36.8% |
| 50–60% | 14 | 55.5% | 78.6% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 65.8% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.5% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 35 of 73 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6317 | 0.6473 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.9% | 37.6% |
| Favourite won | 42.9% | 42.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 35 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Gent 2–1 Charleroi59·23·18
- ✗Dender 0–0 RAAL La Louvière38·28·34
- ✗Charleroi 0–2 KV Mechelen36·28·36
- ✓Cercle Brugge 2–4 Gent35·27·38
- ✗St. Truiden 1–2 Genk41·26·33
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 KVC Westerlo69·20·12
- ✓Standard Liege 1–2 Club Brugge KV21·25·54
- ✗Zulte Waregem 2–0 Antwerp33·28·40
- ✗OH Leuven 1–1 Anderlecht25·26·49
- ✗Club Brugge KV 5–5 KVC Westerlo74·17·9
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 73 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.