KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
KV Mechelen were slight favourites.
KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 26). KV Mechelen had 5.9 days of rest, St. Truiden 6.1 and had to travel.
Rest days5.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
KV Mechelen50%
Draw26%
St. Truiden24%
KV Mechelen50%
Draw26%
St. Truiden24%
KV Mechelen50%
Draw26%
St. Truiden24%
KV Mechelen42%
Draw27%
St. Truiden30%
KV Mechelen50%
Draw26%
St. Truiden24%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.49
- Matches 35
Team strength
KV Mechelen
St. Truiden
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
18
AttackIn forecast
37
23
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenSt. Truiden
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
89%
Scored inContext
78%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
10.67
ShotsContext
14.00
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
42%
On target shareContext
30%
7.75
Shots in the boxContext
9.22
67%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.57
OffsidesContext
3.43
15.56
Shots allowedContext
10.89
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
4.78
BlocksContext
3.22
4.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
93%
Save rateContext
72%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
377
PassesContext
427
307
Accurate passesContext
345
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.88
8.67
FoulsContext
12.67
9.56
Fouls sufferedContext
11.22
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.20
ShotsContext
13.90
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
39%
On target shareContext
31%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
65%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.75
OffsidesContext
3.13
15.40
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.60
BlocksContext
3.60
4.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
91%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
395
PassesContext
445
323
Accurate passesContext
365
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.92
8.70
FoulsContext
11.90
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km137 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
St. Truiden
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 137 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 15.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
4Gora Diouf
8M. Konaté
2R. Halhal
3José Marsà
17Mathis Servais
6F. Hammar
7T. Koudou
11B. Bafdili
9M. van Brederode
20L. Lauberbach
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
26V. Musliu
5S. Taniguchi
20R. Van Helden
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
42Keisuke Goto
60R. Vanwesemael
9A. Ferrari
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
St. Truiden · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Gent | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 1–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 15 of 21 · 2.14 per game | 11 of 21 · 1.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 KV Mechelen wins0 draws2 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 3 Dec 2023KV Mechelen0–2St. Truiden
- 17 Sep 2023St. Truiden2–0KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.22 | 2.56 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 44% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 56% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| KV Mechelen | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.22 | 2.56 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 44% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 56% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 6.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.22 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 12.33 | 9.38 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 3.89 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 2/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| KV Mechelen | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 9.67 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.70 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.06league 3.93
Red cards0.31league 0.22
Cards 5+40%league 44%
Fouls23.4league 22.6
Penalties0.49league 0.30
Home wins54%league 41%
KV Mechelen1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Sep 23A · St. Truiden0–22
St. Truiden2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Sep 23H · KV Mechelen2–01
- W30 Jul 23H · Standard Liege1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen9 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
St. Truiden9 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
