KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
KV Mechelen
5th · 39 pts · 26 played
DDWLW
First leg1–1
2–1Full time
Zulte Waregem
12th · 29 pts · 26 played
LLWLL
Our take
KV Mechelen were slight favourites.
KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 24). KV Mechelen had 6 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 5.9 and had to travel 75 km.
Away travel75 kmRest days6 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
KV Mechelen53%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem24%
KV Mechelen51%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem23%
KV Mechelen53%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem24%
KV Mechelen45%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem30%
KV Mechelen52%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem24%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 45
Team strength
KV MechelenZulte Waregem
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
18
AttackIn forecast
27
23
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenZulte Waregem
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.12
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
85%
Scored inContext
77%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
10.08
ShotsContext
12.00
3.84
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.32
37%
On target shareContext
35%
7.17
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
68%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.41
OffsidesContext
1.94
13.96
Shots allowedContext
12.92
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.58
4.13
BlocksContext
3.42
4.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.96
85%
Save rateContext
65%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
402
PassesContext
392
328
Accurate passesContext
316
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.19
FoulsContext
10.46
11.31
Fouls sufferedContext
11.35
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.80
ShotsContext
13.30
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
35%
On target shareContext
31%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
68%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
3.33
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.80
Shots allowedContext
10.50
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.00
BlocksContext
2.67
4.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
80%
Save rateContext
57%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
422
PassesContext
428
343
Accurate passesContext
344
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.50
FoulsContext
9.00
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km127 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Zulte Waregem
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel75 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 5.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 75 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 127 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
33T. St. Jago
8M. Konaté
2R. Halhal
17Mathis Servais
6F. Hammar
19A. Mrabti
7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode
28B. Boersma
27K. Van Rafelghem
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
31L. Willen
5Jakob Kiilerich
45Benoit De Jaegere
17E. Soglo
8T. Claes
40D. Asare
10Jeppe Erenbjerg
19Benoit Nyssen
22J. Opoku
18A. Ementa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
1.38points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-3
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 1.15
Zulte Waregem · Away
0.85points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-6
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.85
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–0 AW 3–2 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Genk | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Antwerp | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| KVC Westerlo | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Dender | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 AL 1–3 H | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–2 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Charleroi | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Anderlecht | L 1–3 A | L 2–4 HW 3–2 A |
| Gent | D 1–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 2–1 H | L 3–4 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 38 of 75 · 1.52 per game | 28 of 75 · 1.12 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 KV Mechelen wins1 draws0 Zulte Waregem wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 26 Jul 2025Zulte Waregem1–1KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.12 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 2.42 | 3.00 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 65% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 23% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| KV Mechelen | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.40 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.84 | 4.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 5.61 | |
| Match total | 10.64 | 10.09 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 16/25 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 15/25 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 12/25 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.77 | 2.15 | |
| Match total | 4.08 | 3.84 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 16/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 10/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| KV Mechelen | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.12 | 8.38 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.10 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.87
Red cards0.27league 0.19
Cards 5+31%league 41%
Fouls23.5league 22.8
Penalties0.47league 0.31
Home wins58%league 40%
KV Mechelen2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L4 Oct 25H · St. Truiden1–33
- L17 Sep 23A · St. Truiden0–22
Zulte WaregemNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen26 games · scored 34 · conceded 29
6
2
0-15
5
4
16-30
7
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
6
61-75
7
10
76-90
Zulte Waregem26 games · scored 36 · conceded 42
3
7
0-15
8
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
4
7
46-60
3
5
61-75
11
10
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
8
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
