Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Feb 28 · 15:00 AFAS Stadion, Malines
KV Mechelen 5th · 39 pts · 26 played
First leg1–1 2–1Full time
Zulte Waregem 12th · 29 pts · 26 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
KV Mechelen52.6%fair odds 1.90
Draw23.9%fair odds 4.19
Zulte Waregem23.6%fair odds 4.25
Expected goals1.85 – 1.17total 3.02
Likeliest score1–111.1%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

KV Mechelen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Zulte Waregem

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

KV Mechelen ↓ · Zulte Waregem →0123456+
05.45.23.41.30.40.10.0
18.511.16.22.40.70.20.0
28.39.85.72.20.70.20.0
35.16.03.51.40.40.10.0
42.42.81.60.60.20.00.0
50.91.00.60.20.10.00.0
6+0.40.40.20.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are KV Mechelen goals, columns Zulte Waregem goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.1%8.98
  • 2–19.8%10.24
  • 1–08.5%11.83
  • 2–08.3%12.02
  • 1–26.2%16.12
  • 3–16.0%16.64
  • 2–25.7%17.46
  • 0–05.4%18.38
  • 0–15.2%19.36
  • 3–05.1%19.52

Winning margin

13.9% KV Mechelen by 3+ fair 7.20
16.2% KV Mechelen by 2 fair 6.17
22.5% KV Mechelen by 1 fair 4.45
23.9% Draw fair 4.19
14.1% Zulte Waregem by 1 fair 7.11
6.5% Zulte Waregem by 2 fair 15.27
2.9% Zulte Waregem by 3+ fair 33.98

Goal distribution

Total goals

5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+

KV Mechelen goals

16%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+

Zulte Waregem goals

31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
KV Mechelen win 52.6% 52.4% +0.2 pp
Draw 23.9% 23.9% +0.0 pp
Zulte Waregem win 23.6% 23.8% -0.2 pp
Over 2.5 58.1% 58.5% -0.3 pp
Both teams score 58.7% 59.1% -0.3 pp
Expected goals KV Mechelen 1.85 1.85 -0.00
Expected goals Zulte Waregem 1.17 1.19 -0.01

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • KV Mechelen win52.6%1.90
  • Draw23.9%4.19
  • Zulte Waregem win23.6%4.25
  • Double chance KV Mechelen or draw76.4%1.31
  • Double chance KV Mechelen or Zulte Waregem76.1%1.31
  • Double chance Zulte Waregem or draw47.4%2.11
  • Draw no bet KV Mechelen69.1%1.45
  • Draw no bet Zulte Waregem30.9%3.23

Goals

  • Over 0.594.6%1.06
  • Over 1.580.9%1.24
  • Over 2.558.1%1.72
  • Over 3.535.7%2.80
  • Over 4.518.8%5.32
  • Under 1.519.1%5.25
  • Under 2.541.9%2.39
  • Under 3.564.3%1.56

Both teams to score

  • Yes58.7%1.70
  • No41.3%2.42
  • Yes and over 2.547.6%2.10
  • KV Mechelen win and yes27.1%3.69
  • Draw and yes18.4%5.42
  • Zulte Waregem win and yes13.2%7.57

Team goals

  • KV Mechelen over 0.584.2%1.19
  • KV Mechelen over 1.555.1%1.82
  • KV Mechelen over 2.528.2%3.55
  • Zulte Waregem over 0.569.1%1.45
  • Zulte Waregem over 1.532.8%3.05
  • Zulte Waregem over 2.511.5%8.71
  • KV Mechelen clean sheet30.9%3.23
  • Zulte Waregem clean sheet15.8%6.34
  • KV Mechelen win to nil25.5%3.92
  • Zulte Waregem win to nil10.3%9.68

Handicap

  • KV Mechelen −1.530.1%3.32
  • KV Mechelen −2.513.9%7.20
  • Zulte Waregem +1.569.9%1.43
  • Zulte Waregem +2.586.1%1.16
  • Zulte Waregem −1.59.5%10.54
  • KV Mechelen +1.590.5%1.10

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored209 Favourite won43.5% Avg chance given to result37.2% 1X2 Brier0.636 Over 2.5 called right52.6% BTTS called right50.7%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%4038.0%35.0%
40–50%9544.8%36.8%
50–60%4954.7%51.0%
60–70%2164.6%71.4%
70–80%473.5%50.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 171 of 209 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.64270.6302
Avg chance given to result37.1%38.0%
Favourite won42.7%43.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 171 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 209 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.