KVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
KVC Westerlo
11th · 24 pts · 20 played
DWDWL
First leg1–4
0–2Full time
Cercle Brugge
15th · 17 pts · 20 played
DLLWD
Our take
KVC Westerlo were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. KVC Westerlo had 20.9 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 22.1 and had to travel 119 km.
Away travel119 kmRest days20.9 · 22.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
KVC Westerlo45%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge28%
KVC Westerlo45%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge28%
KVC Westerlo45%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge28%
KVC Westerlo38%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge35%
KVC Westerlo45%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge28%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Put
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 24
Team strength
KVC WesterloCercle Brugge
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
42
AttackIn forecast
24
32
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KVC WesterloCercle Brugge
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
60%
Scored inContext
75%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.05
ShotsContext
12.65
4.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.26
30%
On target shareContext
32%
10.35
Shots in the boxContext
9.68
67%
Box shareContext
75%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.36
OffsidesContext
2.84
12.50
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
4.06
BlocksContext
3.47
2.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
66%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
382
PassesContext
372
308
Accurate passesContext
285
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.40
FoulsContext
10.85
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.55
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.48
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
50%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.80
ShotsContext
12.80
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
27%
On target shareContext
32%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
10.33
65%
Box shareContext
77%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
1.38
OffsidesContext
3.50
11.80
Shots allowedContext
13.30
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.75
BlocksContext
3.90
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
72%
Save rateContext
64%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
407
PassesContext
392
334
Accurate passesContext
304
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.50
FoulsContext
10.90
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KVC Westerlo
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cercle Brugge
Rest22.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel119 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KVC Westerlo |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Dec | 22.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 119 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
23L. Mbamba-Muanda
4A. Lapage
40E. Bayram
22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer
13I. Sakamoto
7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1Warleson(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
3E. Utkus
66C. Ravych
15G. Magnée
28H. Van der Bruggen
37E. Diop
18P. Gerkens
6L. Agyekum
9S. Ngoura
17O. Adewumi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KVC Westerlo · Home
1.70points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-3
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 0.70
Cercle Brugge · Away
1.11points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-3
- Scored
- 0.89
- Conceded
- 0.89
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | KVC Westerlo | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | L 0–2 AD 0–0 H | L 2–4 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Anderlecht | W 4–0 HL 2–5 A | L 0–2 H |
| Dender | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Charleroi | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | D 5–5 A | L 0–2 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| St. Truiden | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Antwerp | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 H | L 2–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 24 of 57 · 1.26 per game | 14 of 57 · 0.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 KVC Westerlo wins0 draws2 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.67
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 17 Aug 2025Cercle Brugge4–1KVC Westerlo
- 30 Jan 2024KVC Westerlo4–2Cercle Brugge
- 2 Sep 2023Cercle Brugge2–1KVC Westerlo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KVC Westerlo | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.75 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 45% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 65% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 25% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| KVC Westerlo | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.80 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KVC Westerlo | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.05 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.21 | |
| Match total | 9.85 | 10.10 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 13/20 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 11/20 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 11/20 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.35 | 3.80 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 10/20 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 6/20 | 30% 6/20 | |
| KVC Westerlo | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.34 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.20 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Put 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.54league 3.80
Red cards0.13league 0.20
Cards 5+42%league 40%
Fouls24.1league 22.8
Penalties0.25league 0.29
Home wins33%league 41%
KVC Westerlo3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D22 Nov 25H · Gent0–03
- W30 Jan 24H · Cercle Brugge4–23
- D22 Sep 23A · Standard Liege0–03
Cercle Brugge5 with this referee
Record1-0-4
Cards · opp.2.6 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- L2 Nov 25A · RAAL La Louvière1–21
- L28 Sep 25H · Gent2–42
- L30 Jan 24A · KVC Westerlo2–45
- W22 Oct 23H · Gent2–03
- L13 Aug 23H · Genk0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KVC Westerlo20 games · scored 28 · conceded 30
6
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
4
9
31-45
6
3
46-60
6
4
61-75
4
8
76-90
Cercle Brugge20 games · scored 25 · conceded 30
2
3
0-15
3
6
16-30
10
8
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
