KVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
KVC Westerlo
10th · 31 pts · 25 played
LDWLW
First leg0–2
2–1Full time
Charleroi
9th · 33 pts · 25 played
WWWLL
Our take
KVC Westerlo were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards KVC Westerlo. KVC Westerlo had 7.1 days of rest, Charleroi 8 and had to travel 82 km.
Away travel82 kmRest days7.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
KVC Westerlo44%
Draw26%
Charleroi30%
KVC Westerlo42%
Draw27%
Charleroi31%
KVC Westerlo44%
Draw26%
Charleroi30%
KVC Westerlo37%
Draw26%
Charleroi37%
KVC Westerlo44%
Draw25%
Charleroi30%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Van Damme
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 22
Team strength
KVC WesterloCharleroi
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
42
AttackIn forecast
43
32
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KVC WesterloCharleroi
1.28
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
60%
Scored inContext
80%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
14.16
ShotsContext
12.04
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
32%
On target shareContext
36%
9.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.46
67%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.47
OffsidesContext
2.43
12.40
Shots allowedContext
11.52
4.04
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
4.19
BlocksContext
3.25
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
66%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
383
PassesContext
376
306
Accurate passesContext
302
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.40
FoulsContext
11.56
11.68
Fouls sufferedContext
10.68
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.96
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.30
ShotsContext
15.00
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
39%
On target shareContext
32%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
65%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.30
Shots allowedContext
11.20
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
4.67
BlocksContext
2.50
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
65%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
381
PassesContext
404
300
Accurate passesContext
331
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.60
FoulsContext
12.20
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KVC Westerlo
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km69 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Charleroi
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel82 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KVC Westerlo |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 82 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 69 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
6C. Nsiala
33R. Neustädter
40E. Bayram
22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer
13I. Sakamoto
7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
14P. Pflücke
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KVC Westerlo · Home
1.42points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-5
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.08
Charleroi · Away
1.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-6
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | KVC Westerlo | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 0–4 HW 3–0 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Cercle Brugge | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A | L 3–4 HW 3–2 A |
| Gent | L 0–2 AD 0–0 H | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Anderlecht | W 4–0 HL 2–5 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Dender | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Club Brugge KV | D 5–5 A | L 0–1 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 31 of 72 · 1.29 per game | 30 of 72 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 KVC Westerlo wins0 draws3 Charleroi wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 8 Nov 2025Charleroi2–0KVC Westerlo
- 1 Mar 2024KVC Westerlo0–1Charleroi
- 25 Nov 2023Charleroi3–2KVC Westerlo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KVC Westerlo | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.28 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 2.76 | 2.68 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 44% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 56% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| KVC Westerlo | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.80 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KVC Westerlo | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.96 | 5.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.96 | 4.84 | |
| Match total | 9.92 | 9.92 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 17/25 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 14/25 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 14/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.68 | 2.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.48 | 3.88 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 13/25 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 7/25 | 36% 9/25 | |
| KVC Westerlo | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 11.00 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.10 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Van Damme 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.87
Red cards0.18league 0.19
Cards 5+45%league 41%
Fouls23.1league 22.8
Penalties0.41league 0.30
Home wins23%league 40%
KVC Westerlo3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.0.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- L21 Sep 25H · Standard Liege0–20
- D10 Feb 24A · Union St. Gilloise2–22
- D29 Jul 23A · AS Eupen2–20
Charleroi3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D3 Aug 25H · St. Truiden1–15
- L23 Feb 24H · Genk0–12
- D20 Aug 23A · Genk0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KVC Westerlo25 games · scored 32 · conceded 37
6
3
0-15
5
5
16-30
4
12
31-45
6
3
46-60
7
4
61-75
4
10
76-90
Charleroi25 games · scored 34 · conceded 33
7
7
0-15
4
6
16-30
7
4
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
7
61-75
9
3
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
4
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
