KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
KVC Westerlo
10th · 31 pts · 25 played
LDWLW
First leg0–2
2–1Full time
Charleroi
9th · 33 pts · 25 played
WWWLL
KVC Westerlo44.2%fair odds 2.26
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.92
Charleroi30.3%fair odds 3.31
Expected goals1.62 – 1.30total 2.92
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Charleroi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| KVC Westerlo ↓ · Charleroi → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are KVC Westerlo goals, columns Charleroi goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.36
- 2–19.2%10.88
- 1–08.1%12.33
- 1–27.4%13.51
- 2–07.0%14.19
- 0–16.4%15.59
- 2–26.0%16.70
- 0–06.0%16.71
- 3–15.0%20.17
- 0–24.6%21.87
Winning margin
9.5%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 10.49
13.5%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 7.40
21.2%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 4.73
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.92
16.9%
Charleroi by 1
fair 5.91
8.8%
Charleroi by 2
fair 11.41
4.6%
Charleroi by 3+
fair 21.95
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
KVC Westerlo goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Charleroi goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo win | 44.2% | 44.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.5% | +0.1 pp |
| Charleroi win | 30.3% | 30.2% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 56.2% | -0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.0% | 59.2% | -0.2 pp |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.62 | 1.63 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Charleroi | 1.30 | 1.31 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- KVC Westerlo win44.2%2.26
- Draw25.5%3.92
- Charleroi win30.3%3.31
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw69.7%1.43
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or Charleroi74.5%1.34
- Double chance Charleroi or draw55.8%1.79
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo59.4%1.68
- Draw no bet Charleroi40.6%2.46
Goals
- Over 0.594.0%1.06
- Over 1.579.5%1.26
- Over 2.555.9%1.79
- Over 3.533.5%2.98
- Over 4.517.2%5.82
- Under 1.520.5%4.88
- Under 2.544.1%2.27
- Under 3.566.5%1.50
Both teams to score
- Yes59.0%1.69
- No41.0%2.44
- Yes and over 2.547.1%2.13
- KVC Westerlo win and yes23.0%4.34
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- Charleroi win and yes16.4%6.09
Team goals
- KVC Westerlo over 0.580.2%1.25
- KVC Westerlo over 1.548.1%2.08
- KVC Westerlo over 2.522.1%4.52
- Charleroi over 0.572.8%1.37
- Charleroi over 1.537.4%2.67
- Charleroi over 2.514.4%6.96
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet27.2%3.68
- Charleroi clean sheet19.8%5.05
- KVC Westerlo win to nil21.2%4.72
- Charleroi win to nil13.8%7.23
Handicap
- KVC Westerlo −1.523.0%4.34
- KVC Westerlo −2.59.5%10.49
- Charleroi +1.577.0%1.30
- Charleroi +2.590.5%1.11
- Charleroi −1.513.3%7.51
- KVC Westerlo +1.586.7%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored207
Favourite won43.5%
Avg chance given to result37.2%
1X2 Brier0.636
Over 2.5 called right52.2%
BTTS called right50.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 40 | 38.0% | 35.0% |
| 40–50% | 93 | 44.8% | 36.6% |
| 50–60% | 49 | 54.7% | 51.0% |
| 60–70% | 21 | 64.6% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 169 of 207 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6428 | 0.6300 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.1% | 38.0% |
| Favourite won | 42.6% | 43.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 169 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Antwerp 0–2 KVC Westerlo61·22·17
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 207 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.