KVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
KVC Westerlo were slight favourites.
KVC Westerlo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 18). KVC Westerlo had 7 days of rest, Dender 6 and had to travel 63 km.
Away travel63 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
KVC Westerlo49%
Draw26%
Dender25%
KVC Westerlo49%
Draw26%
Dender25%
KVC Westerlo49%
Draw26%
Dender25%
KVC Westerlo42%
Draw27%
Dender31%
KVC Westerlo49%
Draw26%
Dender25%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Letellier
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
KVC Westerlo
Dender
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
42
AttackIn forecast
15
32
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KVC WesterloDender
1.64
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.36
1.82
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.64
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
64%
Scored inContext
36%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
14.45
ShotsContext
8.91
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.09
32%
On target shareContext
35%
9.91
Shots in the boxContext
6.36
67%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
4%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.55
Shots allowedContext
13.18
4.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.09
4.33
BlocksContext
3.45
2.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
63%
Save rateContext
64%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
364
PassesContext
408
288
Accurate passesContext
317
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.73
FoulsContext
10.00
12.18
Fouls sufferedContext
11.55
1.55
Yellow cardsContext
1.27
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.18
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
0.71
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
60%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.90
ShotsContext
8.70
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
32%
On target shareContext
36%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
66%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
5%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.30
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.88
BlocksContext
3.60
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
66%
Save rateContext
63%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
359
PassesContext
411
283
Accurate passesContext
322
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.67
11.50
FoulsContext
9.70
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KVC Westerlo
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km169 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dender
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel63 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KVC Westerlo |
Dender |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 63 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 169 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
77J. Alcócer
5Seiji Kimura
40E. Bayram
22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
13I. Sakamoto
39T. Van den Keybus
7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri
Dender
Confirmed XI
30G. Dietsch(G)
88F. Ferraro
5L. Marijnissen
44L. De Fougerolles
22B. Fredrick
70M. Sambu
24M. Viltard
17N. Mbamba
16R. Květ
9David Toševski
77B. Nsimba
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dender+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KVC Westerlo · Home
1.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 0.80
Dender · Away
0.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-4
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 2.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | KVC Westerlo | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| St. Truiden | W 3–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Cercle Brugge | L 1–4 A | D 0–0 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Anderlecht | L 2–5 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 7 of 24 · 0.88 per game | 3 of 24 · 0.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| KVC Westerlo | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.64 | 0.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.82 | 1.64 | |
| Match goals | 3.45 | 2.00 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 36% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 36% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 64% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| KVC Westerlo | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.20 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KVC Westerlo | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.64 | 2.91 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.82 | 4.55 | |
| Match total | 9.46 | 7.46 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 6/11 | 18% 2/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 6/11 | 0% 0/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.55 | 1.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.82 | 1.73 | |
| Match total | 3.37 | 3.28 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 6/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 3/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| KVC Westerlo | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 2.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 7.60 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Letellier 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.50league 3.87
Red cards0.00league 0.22
Cards 5+0%league 43%
Fouls19.5league 23.3
Penalties0.00league 0.29
Home wins50%league 43%
KVC Westerlo1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Aug 25A · Cercle Brugge1–41
Dender1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Sep 25H · RAAL La Louvière0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KVC Westerlo11 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
Dender11 games · scored 4 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
6
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 4 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
