KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
KVC Westerlo49.1%fair odds 2.04
Draw26.1%fair odds 3.83
Dender24.8%fair odds 4.03
Expected goals1.61 – 1.08total 2.68
Likeliest score1–112.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Dender
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| KVC Westerlo ↓ · Dender → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are KVC Westerlo goals, columns Dender goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%8.03
- 1–010.4%9.65
- 2–19.5%10.53
- 2–08.8%11.33
- 0–07.5%13.39
- 0–16.7%14.85
- 1–26.4%15.72
- 2–25.1%19.58
- 3–15.1%19.67
- 3–04.7%21.16
Winning margin
10.9%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 9.18
15.1%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 6.60
23.0%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 4.34
26.1%
Draw
fair 3.83
15.2%
Dender by 1
fair 6.57
6.8%
Dender by 2
fair 14.72
2.8%
Dender by 3+
fair 35.52
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
KVC Westerlo goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Dender goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo win | 49.1% | 49.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.8% | +0.3 pp |
| Dender win | 24.8% | 24.9% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 51.3% | -1.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.3% | 54.2% | -0.9 pp |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.61 | 1.63 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Dender | 1.08 | 1.09 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- KVC Westerlo win49.1%2.04
- Draw26.1%3.83
- Dender win24.8%4.03
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw75.2%1.33
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or Dender73.9%1.35
- Double chance Dender or draw50.9%1.96
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo66.4%1.51
- Draw no bet Dender33.6%2.98
Goals
- Over 0.592.5%1.08
- Over 1.575.4%1.33
- Over 2.550.2%1.99
- Over 3.528.2%3.55
- Over 4.513.4%7.44
- Under 1.524.6%4.07
- Under 2.549.8%2.01
- Under 3.571.8%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes53.3%1.88
- No46.7%2.14
- Yes and over 2.540.9%2.45
- KVC Westerlo win and yes22.4%4.46
- Draw and yes18.7%5.36
- Dender win and yes12.2%8.18
Team goals
- KVC Westerlo over 0.579.9%1.25
- KVC Westerlo over 1.547.7%2.10
- KVC Westerlo over 2.521.8%4.58
- Dender over 0.565.9%1.52
- Dender over 1.529.2%3.42
- Dender over 2.59.5%10.55
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet34.1%2.93
- Dender clean sheet20.1%4.98
- KVC Westerlo win to nil26.6%3.75
- Dender win to nil12.6%7.94
Handicap
- KVC Westerlo −1.526.0%3.84
- KVC Westerlo −2.510.9%9.18
- Dender +1.574.0%1.35
- Dender +2.589.1%1.12
- Dender −1.59.6%10.41
- KVC Westerlo +1.590.4%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored89
Favourite won44.9%
Avg chance given to result38.2%
1X2 Brier0.613
Over 2.5 called right57.3%
BTTS called right50.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 17 | 38.4% | 23.5% |
| 40–50% | 46 | 45.0% | 34.8% |
| 50–60% | 17 | 55.5% | 76.5% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 65.7% | 87.5% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.5% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 51 of 89 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6186 | 0.6178 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.4% | 38.8% |
| Favourite won | 43.1% | 45.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 51 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 89 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.