KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
KVC Westerlo
11th · 21 pts · 18 played
LDDWD
First leg0–0
2–1Full time
RAAL La Louvière
13th · 19 pts · 18 played
LLDLD
KVC Westerlo44.3%fair odds 2.26
Draw27.6%fair odds 3.63
RAAL La Louvière28.1%fair odds 3.56
Expected goals1.44 – 1.10total 2.54
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
RAAL La Louvière
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| KVC Westerlo ↓ · RAAL La Louvière → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are KVC Westerlo goals, columns RAAL La Louvière goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.61
- 1–010.7%9.36
- 2–19.0%11.10
- 0–08.5%11.75
- 2–08.2%12.21
- 0–18.0%12.54
- 1–26.9%14.57
- 2–25.0%20.18
- 0–24.8%21.05
- 3–14.3%23.06
Winning margin
8.4%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 11.89
13.5%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 7.42
22.4%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 4.46
27.6%
Draw
fair 3.63
16.9%
RAAL La Louvière by 1
fair 5.91
7.8%
RAAL La Louvière by 2
fair 12.78
3.4%
RAAL La Louvière by 3+
fair 29.65
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
11%5+
KVC Westerlo goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
RAAL La Louvière goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo win | 44.3% | 44.1% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.7% | +0.8 pp |
| RAAL La Louvière win | 28.1% | 29.1% | -1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 50.5% | -3.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.6% | 54.7% | -3.1 pp |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.44 | 1.51 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals RAAL La Louvière | 1.10 | 1.18 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- KVC Westerlo win44.3%2.26
- Draw27.6%3.63
- RAAL La Louvière win28.1%3.56
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw71.9%1.39
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or RAAL La Louvière72.4%1.38
- Double chance RAAL La Louvière or draw55.7%1.80
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo61.2%1.63
- Draw no bet RAAL La Louvière38.8%2.58
Goals
- Over 0.591.5%1.09
- Over 1.572.8%1.37
- Over 2.546.8%2.14
- Over 3.525.2%3.97
- Over 4.511.5%8.71
- Under 1.527.2%3.68
- Under 2.553.2%1.88
- Under 3.574.8%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes51.6%1.94
- No48.4%2.07
- Yes and over 2.538.5%2.60
- KVC Westerlo win and yes19.5%5.12
- Draw and yes19.1%5.25
- RAAL La Louvière win and yes13.0%7.67
Team goals
- KVC Westerlo over 0.576.4%1.31
- KVC Westerlo over 1.542.3%2.36
- KVC Westerlo over 2.517.7%5.64
- RAAL La Louvière over 0.566.7%1.50
- RAAL La Louvière over 1.530.1%3.32
- RAAL La Louvière over 2.510.0%10.04
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet33.3%3.00
- RAAL La Louvière clean sheet23.6%4.24
- KVC Westerlo win to nil24.8%4.04
- RAAL La Louvière win to nil15.1%6.63
Handicap
- KVC Westerlo −1.521.9%4.57
- KVC Westerlo −2.58.4%11.89
- RAAL La Louvière +1.578.1%1.28
- RAAL La Louvière +2.591.6%1.09
- RAAL La Louvière −1.511.2%8.93
- KVC Westerlo +1.588.8%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored146
Favourite won43.2%
Avg chance given to result37.3%
1X2 Brier0.631
Over 2.5 called right54.1%
BTTS called right52.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 38.2% | 34.6% |
| 40–50% | 75 | 44.9% | 32.0% |
| 50–60% | 31 | 54.7% | 61.3% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 65.2% | 81.8% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 108 of 146 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6393 | 0.6447 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.1% | 37.3% |
| Favourite won | 41.7% | 39.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 108 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Dender 0–1 Standard Liege37·28·35
- ✗Charleroi 2–2 Genk32·27·41
- ✗Genk 1–1 KVC Westerlo54·24·22
- ✗Charleroi 1–1 Union St. Gilloise22·25·52
- ✓Dender 1–5 Club Brugge KV20·24·55
- ✗Gent 0–2 Antwerp43·27·30
- ✓Anderlecht 2–1 St. Truiden51·25·24
- ✗Zulte Waregem 2–2 RAAL La Louvière46·27·26
- ✓Cercle Brugge 2–3 KV Mechelen36·27·37
- ✗Standard Liege 0–1 OH Leuven50·26·24
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 146 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.