KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
KVC Westerlo40.2%fair odds 2.49
Draw27.2%fair odds 3.68
Zulte Waregem32.6%fair odds 3.07
Expected goals1.41 – 1.25total 2.67
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Zulte Waregem
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| KVC Westerlo ↓ · Zulte Waregem → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are KVC Westerlo goals, columns Zulte Waregem goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.72
- 1–09.2%10.89
- 2–18.7%11.49
- 0–18.0%12.43
- 1–27.7%12.99
- 0–07.6%13.15
- 2–07.0%14.37
- 2–25.4%18.36
- 0–25.4%18.37
- 3–14.1%24.35
Winning margin
7.2%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 13.86
12.1%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 8.27
20.9%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 4.79
27.2%
Draw
fair 3.68
18.4%
Zulte Waregem by 1
fair 5.44
9.5%
Zulte Waregem by 2
fair 10.57
4.8%
Zulte Waregem by 3+
fair 20.97
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
KVC Westerlo goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
6%4+
Zulte Waregem goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo win | 40.2% | 40.2% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.1% | +0.1 pp |
| Zulte Waregem win | 32.6% | 32.6% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.8% | 50.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.7% | 55.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.41 | 1.42 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Zulte Waregem | 1.25 | 1.26 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- KVC Westerlo win40.2%2.49
- Draw27.2%3.68
- Zulte Waregem win32.6%3.07
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw67.4%1.48
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or Zulte Waregem72.8%1.37
- Double chance Zulte Waregem or draw59.8%1.67
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo55.2%1.81
- Draw no bet Zulte Waregem44.8%2.23
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.2%1.33
- Over 2.549.8%2.01
- Over 3.527.8%3.59
- Over 4.513.2%7.57
- Under 1.524.8%4.03
- Under 2.550.2%1.99
- Under 3.572.2%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes54.7%1.83
- No45.3%2.21
- Yes and over 2.541.7%2.40
- KVC Westerlo win and yes19.2%5.22
- Draw and yes19.6%5.10
- Zulte Waregem win and yes15.9%6.28
Team goals
- KVC Westerlo over 0.575.7%1.32
- KVC Westerlo over 1.541.3%2.42
- KVC Westerlo over 2.517.0%5.88
- Zulte Waregem over 0.571.4%1.40
- Zulte Waregem over 1.535.6%2.81
- Zulte Waregem over 2.513.2%7.58
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet28.6%3.50
- Zulte Waregem clean sheet24.3%4.12
- KVC Westerlo win to nil21.0%4.76
- Zulte Waregem win to nil16.7%5.99
Handicap
- KVC Westerlo −1.519.3%5.18
- KVC Westerlo −2.57.2%13.86
- Zulte Waregem +1.580.7%1.24
- Zulte Waregem +2.592.8%1.08
- Zulte Waregem −1.514.2%7.03
- KVC Westerlo +1.585.8%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored9
Favourite won22.2%
Avg chance given to result35.2%
1X2 Brier0.667
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right77.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 7 | 43.0% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 1 | 58.4% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 63.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 9 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
- ✗KV Mechelen 2–1 Club Brugge KV25·26·49
- ✗St. Truiden 3–1 Gent32·27·41
- ✓Club Brugge KV 2–1 Genk58·23·18
- ✗OH Leuven 2–2 Charleroi44·27·29
- ✓Anderlecht 5–2 KVC Westerlo63·22·15
- ✗RAAL La Louvière 0–2 Standard Liege43·27·30
- ✗Zulte Waregem 1–1 KV Mechelen40·27·33
- ✗Dender 0–0 Cercle Brugge44·27·29
- ✗Antwerp 1–1 Union St. Gilloise40·27·33
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 9 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.