Lask Linz vs Liverpool – 14 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Wed, Oct 14 · 17:45 Raiffeisen Arena, Linz

Lask Linz 27th · 0 pts · 1 played L

3–6Full time

Liverpool 15th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lask Linz. Lask Linz were without M. Usor and G. Bello. Liverpool were without D. Szoboszlai and C. Gakpo. Lask Linz had 36 days of rest, Liverpool 3.1 and had to travel 1,334 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,334 kmRest days36 · 3.1Matches / 14d0 · 1

Lask Linz23%

Draw22%

Liverpool54%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.88

Lask Linz20%

Draw23%

Liverpool58%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.84

Lask Linz23%

Draw22%

Liverpool55%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.92

Lask Linz18%

Draw20%

Liverpool62%

Expected goals 1.03 – 2.11

Lask Linz24%

Draw23%

Liverpool54%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.87

Over 2.5 59% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Linz)

14°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 73%

Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 113

Team strength

Lask Linz

Liverpool

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 82

37 Current StrengthIn forecast 84

48 AttackIn forecast 85

34 DefenceIn forecast 84

— Form indexContext 86

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lask Linz

Attack—

Defense risk—

Liverpool

Attack+32%

Defense risk−27%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lask Linz

Liverpool

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

+0.67 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

80% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

17.40 ShotsContext 15.10

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

32% On target shareContext 34%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

63% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 9%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.20

10.50 Shots allowedContext 11.30

2.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.10 BlocksContext 3.10

1.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

58% Save rateContext 65%

43% PossessionIn forecast 54%

349 PassesContext 471

274 Accurate passesContext 401

78% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.89

11.50 FoulsContext 13.00

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lask Linz L

Rest36 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 40 · 0 pts vs 1.1 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

L8 SepA · AEK Athens FC0–11.1 xPts

Liverpool WWDWL

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,334 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 86 · 10 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

L11 OctH · Manchester City0–31.3 xPts
W20 SepA · Bournemouth1–01.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Fulham0–02.0 xPts
W9 SepH · Atletico Madrid2–12.0 xPts
W4 SepA · Ipswich2–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lask Linz	Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	36UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Sep	3.1Premier League 2026-2027, 11 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,334 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lask Linz Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1L. Jungwirth(G)

25Y. Dibango 16A. Andrade 43Alemão 4X. Mbuyamba 20Kasper Jørgensen

27C. Lang 18A. Schöpf 6M. Bogarde 9K. Daněk

7S. Adeniran

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

21K. Tsimikas 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo 30J. Frimpong

42T. Nyoni 38R. Gravenberch

29B. Barcola 7F. Wirtz 73R. Ngumoha

67L. Koumas

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lask Linz Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −30.5% · Defence line −9.4% of weighted minutes

ATT M. Usor Core 7.41 Att −30.5%
DEF G. Bello Starter 6.88 Def −9.4%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): Cheikne Kebe, Ramiz Harakate, A. Smakaj

Liverpool Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −40.3% · Defence line −10.8% of weighted minutes

MID D. Szoboszlai Core 7.40 Att −15.7% Def −9.3%
ATT C. Gakpo Starter 6.86 Att −15.3%
ATT H. Ekitiké Rotation 6.86 Att −5.6%
ATT A. Isak Rotation 6.73 Att −3.1%
DEF C. Bradley Rotation 6.68 Def −1.3%
ATT F. Chiesa Depth 6.52 Att −0.4%

+1 more with impact, 1 without recent minutes (no impact): G. Leoni

Total impact vs full squads

Lask Linz+0.3 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Liverpool-0.7 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Lask Linz · Home No home games yet this season.

Liverpool · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Lask Linz wins0 draws2 Liverpool wins

Goals per game0.50 – 3.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

30 Nov 2023Liverpool4–0Lask Linz
21 Sep 2023Lask Linz1–3Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lask Linz	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	3.00	3.04
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	59%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Lask Linz	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.30
Conceded per game	1.67	1.40
Match goals	3.33	2.70	3.04
Over 1.5	67%	80%
Over 2.5	67%	50%	59%
Over 3.5	33%	30%
Both teams scored	33%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	67%	20%
Games	3	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lask Linz	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	7.00
Corners conceded	7.00	5.00
Match total	10.00	12.00	9.31
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.00
Match total	3.00	2.00	3.88
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Lask Linz	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	4.56	6.00
Corners conceded	5.56	4.10
Match total	10.12	10.10	9.31
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.20
Opponent cards	1.30	2.30
Match total	2.90	4.50	3.88
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 113 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 3.67

Red cards0.19league 0.19

Cards 5+34%league 37%

Fouls21.8league 22.7

Penalties0.32league 0.22

Home wins52%league 59%

Lask Linz

No previous matches with this referee.

Liverpool2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L29 Jan 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–34
W1 Nov 22H · Napoli2–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.