Lask Linz
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lask Linz61.9%fair odds 1.62
Draw20.8%fair odds 4.80
Slovan Bratislava17.3%fair odds 5.80
Expected goals2.17 – 1.07total 3.24
Likeliest score2–19.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Slovan Bratislava
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lask Linz ↓ · Slovan Bratislava → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lask Linz goals, columns Slovan Bratislava goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.9%10.14
- 1–19.6%10.45
- 2–09.2%10.86
- 1–08.0%12.50
- 3–17.1%14.01
- 3–06.7%15.01
- 2–25.3%18.92
- 1–24.9%20.54
- 0–04.4%22.79
- 4–13.9%25.81
Winning margin
20.6%
Lask Linz by 3+
fair 4.85
18.8%
Lask Linz by 2
fair 5.33
22.5%
Lask Linz by 1
fair 4.44
20.8%
Draw
fair 4.80
10.9%
Slovan Bratislava by 1
fair 9.20
4.6%
Slovan Bratislava by 2
fair 21.86
1.8%
Slovan Bratislava by 3+
fair 55.34
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
Lask Linz goals
11%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
Slovan Bratislava goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lask Linz win | 61.9% | 62.6% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 20.8% | 20.1% | +0.7 pp |
| Slovan Bratislava win | 17.3% | 17.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.9% | 66.3% | -3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.7% | 61.3% | -2.6 pp |
| Expected goals Lask Linz | 2.17 | 2.28 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Slovan Bratislava | 1.07 | 1.13 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lask Linz win61.9%1.62
- Draw20.8%4.80
- Slovan Bratislava win17.3%5.80
- Double chance Lask Linz or draw82.7%1.21
- Double chance Lask Linz or Slovan Bratislava79.2%1.26
- Double chance Slovan Bratislava or draw38.1%2.63
- Draw no bet Lask Linz78.2%1.28
- Draw no bet Slovan Bratislava21.8%4.59
Goals
- Over 0.595.6%1.05
- Over 1.583.9%1.19
- Over 2.562.9%1.59
- Over 3.540.7%2.46
- Over 4.522.7%4.41
- Under 1.516.1%6.21
- Under 2.537.1%2.69
- Under 3.559.3%1.69
Both teams to score
- Yes58.7%1.70
- No41.3%2.42
- Yes and over 2.549.2%2.03
- Lask Linz win and yes32.1%3.12
- Draw and yes16.4%6.08
- Slovan Bratislava win and yes10.2%9.77
Team goals
- Lask Linz over 0.588.6%1.13
- Lask Linz over 1.563.8%1.57
- Lask Linz over 2.536.9%2.71
- Slovan Bratislava over 0.565.8%1.52
- Slovan Bratislava over 1.529.1%3.44
- Slovan Bratislava over 2.59.4%10.65
- Lask Linz clean sheet34.2%2.92
- Slovan Bratislava clean sheet11.4%8.77
- Lask Linz win to nil29.9%3.35
- Slovan Bratislava win to nil7.0%14.25
Handicap
- Lask Linz −1.539.4%2.54
- Lask Linz −2.520.6%4.85
- Slovan Bratislava +1.560.6%1.65
- Slovan Bratislava +2.579.4%1.26
- Slovan Bratislava −1.56.4%15.67
- Lask Linz +1.593.6%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored35
Favourite won71.4%
Avg chance given to result49.9%
1X2 Brier0.462
Over 2.5 called right74.3%
BTTS called right62.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 39.6% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 45.7% | 69.2% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 55.5% | 77.8% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.7% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 85.0% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 35 of 35 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4618 | 0.4614 |
| Avg chance given to result | 49.9% | 50.9% |
| Favourite won | 71.4% | 65.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 16 of 35 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.