Lazio vs AC Milan – 15 Mar 2026

Serie A Gameweek 29 Sun, Mar 15 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

Lazio 10th · 37 pts · 28 played DLDLW

1–0Full time

AC Milan 2nd · 60 pts · 28 played WDLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AC Milan were slight favourites.

AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 49). Lazio had 6 days of rest, AC Milan 7 and had to travel 479 km.

Away travel479 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lazio27%

Draw29%

AC Milan44%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.35

Lazio29%

Draw27%

AC Milan45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.53

Lazio27%

Draw29%

AC Milan43%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.31

Lazio22%

Draw27%

AC Milan51%

Expected goals 0.90 – 1.51

Lazio28%

Draw28%

AC Milan45%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.45

Over 2.5 42% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMarco Guida

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 84

Team strength

Lazio

AC Milan

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 66

53 AttackIn forecast 72

63 DefenceIn forecast 69

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lazio

AC Milan

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

50% Scored inContext 93%

43% Clean sheetsContext 46%

11.07 ShotsContext 13.14

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57

35% On target shareContext 35%

6.81 Shots in the boxContext 9.35

59% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.53 OffsidesContext 2.12

13.11 Shots allowedContext 10.75

4.21 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.58

3.50 BlocksContext 3.38

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.04

77% Save rateContext 84%

51% PossessionIn forecast 52%

480 PassesContext 482

413 Accurate passesContext 423

86% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.85 Team ratingContext 7.02

10.11 FoulsContext 9.64

14.93 Fouls sufferedContext 11.57

1.93 Yellow cardsContext 1.54

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

50% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.50 ShotsContext 11.80

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

33% On target shareContext 36%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

60% Box shareContext 72%

9% ConversionContext 13%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.67

13.20 Shots allowedContext 11.80

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

4.40 BlocksContext 3.67

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

65% Save rateContext 87%

51% PossessionIn forecast 51%

512 PassesContext 485

445 Accurate passesContext 426

87% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.78 Team ratingContext 7.07

8.70 FoulsContext 9.90

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lazio

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AC Milan

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel479 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lazio	AC Milan
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Mar	7Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	479 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lazio Confirmed XI

4-3-3

40E. Motta(G)

17Nuno Tavares 25Oliver Provstgaard 34Mario Gila 77A. Marušić

24K. Taylor 4Patric 7O. Dele-Bashiru

10M. Zaccagni 27D. Maldini 18G. Isaksen

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 23O. Tomori

2P. Estupiñán 30A. Jashari 14L. Modrić 19Y. Fofana 56A. Saelemaekers

11C. Pulišić 10Rafael Leão

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lazio Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AC Milan Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lazio-0.2 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
AC Milan+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Lazio · Home 1.57points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 6-4-4
Scored: 1.43
Conceded: 1.21

AC Milan · Away 2.29points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 9-5-0
Scored: 1.79
Conceded: 0.64

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Lazio	AC Milan
Sassuolo	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 H
Torino	L 0–2 AD 3–3 H	W 3–2 A
Cagliari	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H	W 1–0 A
Atalanta	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A	D 1–1 A
Juventus	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Genoa	W 3–2 HW 3–0 A	D 1–1 H
Lecce	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A
Como	L 0–3 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 HW 3–1 A
Verona	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H	W 3–0 H
Fiorentina	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Napoli	L 0–2 H	W 2–1 H
Udinese	D 1–1 A	W 3–0 A
Cremonese	D 0–0 H	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H
Parma	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A
Bologna	D 1–1 H	W 3–0 AW 1–0 H
Inter	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A
Pisa	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H
AS Roma	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Points	37 of 81 · 1.37 per game	57 of 81 · 2.11 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Lazio wins1 draws6 AC Milan wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.44 Over 2.544% Both scored33% Clean sheets11% · 56%

29 Nov 2025AC Milan1–0Lazio
2 Mar 2025AC Milan1–2Lazio
31 Aug 2024Lazio2–2AC Milan
1 Mar 2024Lazio0–1AC Milan
30 Sep 2023AC Milan2–0Lazio
6 May 2023AC Milan2–0Lazio

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lazio	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.57
Conceded per game	1.00	0.71
Match goals	2.00	2.29	2.36
Over 1.5	61%	68%
Over 2.5	29%	43%	42%
Over 3.5	18%	18%
Both teams scored	25%	50%	48%
Clean sheets	43%	46%
Failed to score	50%	7%
Games	28	28

	Lazio	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.50
Conceded per game	1.40	0.60
Match goals	2.40	2.10	2.36
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	42%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	48%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lazio	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	4.12	4.68
Corners conceded	3.88	4.40
Match total	8.00	9.08	8.73
Over 8.5	44% 11/25	56% 14/25
Over 9.5	28% 7/25	40% 10/25
Over 10.5	12% 3/25	36% 9/25
Cards
Cards	2.14	1.68
Opponent cards	2.89	2.00
Match total	5.03	3.68	3.93
Over 3.5	75% 21/28	54% 15/28
Over 4.5	64% 18/28	29% 8/28

	Lazio	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	4.33
Corners conceded	3.90	4.44
Match total	7.80	8.77	8.73
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.80
Opponent cards	3.00	1.80
Match total	4.70	3.60	3.93
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 84 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.92league 3.75

Red cards0.12league 0.19

Cards 5+38%league 35%

Fouls23.9league 25.2

Penalties0.36league 0.31

Home wins43%league 40%

Lazio9 with this referee

Record2-2-5 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.2 Pens for · against1 · 2

D8 Feb 26A · Juventus2–22
W11 Jan 26A · Verona1–01
L6 Apr 24A · AS Roma0–13
L26 Feb 24A · Fiorentina1–22
L4 Feb 24A · Atalanta1–33

AC Milan9 with this referee

Record6-2-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.4 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds1

W15 Jan 26A · Como3–10
W2 Nov 25H · AS Roma1–01
D5 Oct 25A · Juventus0–02
D15 Dec 24H · Genoa0–00
W14 Jan 24H · AS Roma3–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.