Lazio
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lazio27.3%fair odds 3.66
Draw28.8%fair odds 3.47
AC Milan43.9%fair odds 2.28
Expected goals1.01 – 1.35total 2.36
Likeliest score1–113.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AC Milan
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lazio ↓ · AC Milan → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 13.6 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lazio goals, columns AC Milan goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.6%7.38
- 0–112.1%8.27
- 0–010.1%9.86
- 1–08.9%11.29
- 1–28.7%11.51
- 0–28.6%11.61
- 2–16.5%15.40
- 2–04.8%20.79
- 2–24.4%22.83
- 1–33.9%25.59
Winning margin
2.9%
Lazio by 3+
fair 34.46
7.4%
Lazio by 2
fair 13.51
17.0%
Lazio by 1
fair 5.88
28.8%
Draw
fair 3.47
23.0%
AC Milan by 1
fair 4.35
13.3%
AC Milan by 2
fair 7.55
7.7%
AC Milan by 3+
fair 13.07
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
21%1
27%2
21%3
12%4
9%5+
Lazio goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
AC Milan goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio win | 27.3% | 27.7% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 28.8% | 27.5% | +1.3 pp |
| AC Milan win | 43.9% | 44.8% | -0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 41.9% | 46.7% | -4.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.7% | 51.5% | -3.7 pp |
| Expected goals Lazio | 1.01 | 1.09 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals AC Milan | 1.35 | 1.45 | -0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lazio win27.3%3.66
- Draw28.8%3.47
- AC Milan win43.9%2.28
- Double chance Lazio or draw56.1%1.78
- Double chance Lazio or AC Milan71.2%1.40
- Double chance AC Milan or draw72.7%1.38
- Draw no bet Lazio38.4%2.61
- Draw no bet AC Milan61.6%1.62
Goals
- Over 0.589.9%1.11
- Over 1.568.9%1.45
- Over 2.541.9%2.39
- Over 3.521.3%4.71
- Over 4.59.1%11.03
- Under 1.531.1%3.22
- Under 2.558.1%1.72
- Under 3.578.7%1.27
Both teams to score
- Yes47.7%2.10
- No52.3%1.91
- Yes and over 2.534.2%2.93
- Lazio win and yes11.5%8.69
- Draw and yes18.7%5.36
- AC Milan win and yes17.6%5.70
Team goals
- Lazio over 0.563.5%1.57
- Lazio over 1.526.7%3.74
- Lazio over 2.58.2%12.22
- AC Milan over 0.574.1%1.35
- AC Milan over 1.539.1%2.56
- AC Milan over 2.515.4%6.48
- Lazio clean sheet25.9%3.86
- AC Milan clean sheet36.5%2.74
- Lazio win to nil15.8%6.33
- AC Milan win to nil26.3%3.80
Handicap
- Lazio −1.510.3%9.71
- Lazio −2.52.9%34.46
- AC Milan +1.589.7%1.11
- AC Milan +2.597.1%1.03
- AC Milan −1.520.9%4.78
- Lazio +1.579.1%1.26
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored288
Favourite won51.0%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.595
Over 2.5 called right51.0%
BTTS called right50.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 45 | 37.8% | 35.6% |
| 40–50% | 93 | 45.0% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 65 | 54.7% | 47.7% |
| 60–70% | 57 | 64.8% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 73.1% | 65.0% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 82.4% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 240 of 288 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5963 | 0.5807 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 41.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.4% | 52.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 240 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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- ✗AC Milan 1–0 Inter34·29·37
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 288 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.