Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were clear favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 26). Lazio had 4 days of rest, Cagliari 4.1 and had to travel 412 km.
Away travel412 kmRest days4 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lazio63%
Draw22%
Cagliari14%
Lazio65%
Draw21%
Cagliari14%
Lazio63%
Draw23%
Cagliari14%
Lazio56%
Draw25%
Cagliari19%
Lazio65%
Draw21%
Cagliari14%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyJuan Luca Sacchi
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Lazio
Cagliari
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
53
AttackIn forecast
31
63
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioCagliari
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
44%
Scored inContext
67%
56%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
10.33
ShotsContext
9.22
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
33%
On target shareContext
33%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
59%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.20
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.78
Shots allowedContext
13.89
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
2.33
BlocksContext
4.38
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
84%
Save rateContext
78%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
442
PassesContext
366
375
Accurate passesContext
295
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.11
FoulsContext
13.78
16.89
Fouls sufferedContext
14.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.44
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
40%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.70
ShotsContext
8.70
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
33%
On target shareContext
32%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
59%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.17
OffsidesContext
2.11
13.30
Shots allowedContext
14.30
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.20
BlocksContext
4.78
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
83%
Save rateContext
77%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
448
PassesContext
359
381
Accurate passesContext
290
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.10
FoulsContext
13.80
16.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km531 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cagliari
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel412 km1,414 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Oct | 4.1Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 412 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 531 km | 1,414 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
77A. Marušić
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
29M. Lazzari
26T. Bašić
32D. Cataldi
8M. Guendouzi
10M. Zaccagni
19B. Dia
18G. Isaksen
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
2M. Palestra
6S. Luperto
26Y. Mina
28G. Zappa
90M. Folorunsho
16M. Prati
8M. Adopo
10G. Gaetano
29G. Borrelli
94S. Esposito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Cagliari+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Cagliari · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Lazio | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Verona | W 4–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
5 Lazio wins1 draws0 Cagliari wins
Goals per game2.17 – 0.83
Over 2.583%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 3 Feb 2025Cagliari1–2Lazio
- 4 Nov 2024Lazio2–1Cagliari
- 10 Feb 2024Cagliari1–3Lazio
- 2 Dec 2023Lazio1–0Cagliari
- 5 Mar 2022Cagliari0–3Lazio
- 19 Sep 2021Lazio2–2Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 44% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 11% | 56% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 56% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Lazio | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 44% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 11% | 56% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 56% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.57 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 7.71 | 8.26 | 8.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 4.78 | 4.66 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Lazio | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 9.01 | 8.55 | 8.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.50 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Luca Sacchi Italy · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.93
Red cards0.00league 0.13
Cards 5+0%league 39%
Fouls23.0league 25.9
Penalties0.00league 0.29
Home wins0%league 36%
Lazio1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Apr 25H · Parma2–21
CagliariNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lazio9 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Cagliari9 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
