Serie A Gameweek 18 Wed, Jan 6 · 17:30 Stadio Olimpico, Roma
Lazio 2nd · 19 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Inter 1st · 19 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel479 kmRest days3 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Lazio—%
Draw—%
Inter—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Roma)

Forecast from 22 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Lazio and Inter. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

LazioInter
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
62 Current StrengthIn forecast 83
53 AttackIn forecast 91
63 DefenceIn forecast 73
87 Form indexContext 76
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lazio

Attack—
Defense risk—

Inter

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LazioInter
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00
0.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29
1.33 xGVia Att/Def 2.67
1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
+0.67 Goals minus xGContext +0.33
100% Scored inContext 100%
57% Clean sheetsContext 29%
12.71 ShotsContext 21.57
4.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.29
34% On target shareContext 34%
6.86 Shots in the boxContext 15.14
56% Box shareContext 70%
16% ConversionContext 14%
1.75 OffsidesContext 2.83
12.43 Shots allowedContext 11.00
4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.17
3.43 BlocksContext 2.71
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83
85% Save rateContext 68%
48% PossessionIn forecast 63%
446 PassesContext 616
381 Accurate passesContext 556
85% Pass accuracyContext 90%
7.06 Team ratingContext 7.20
12.00 FoulsContext 8.14
11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 9.43
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.57
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.80
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
1.15 xGVia Att/Def 2.73
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36
+0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.07
80% Scored inContext 100%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.90 ShotsContext 21.00
4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.20
39% On target shareContext 34%
6.40 Shots in the boxContext 14.80
56% Box shareContext 70%
13% ConversionContext 13%
1.83 OffsidesContext 2.88
12.20 Shots allowedContext 11.40
4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
3.00 BlocksContext 2.80
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78
78% Save rateContext 64%
48% PossessionIn forecast 61%
450 PassesContext 586
388 Accurate passesContext 529
86% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.92 Team ratingContext 7.05
12.00 FoulsContext 8.70
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lazio
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km468 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 87 · 13 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Juventus3–00.7 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Monza3–12.1 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Venezia2–02.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · AC Milan2–21.5 xPts
  • W7 SepA · Udinese2–11.3 xPts
Inter
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel479 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Form 76 · 10 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Bologna3–11.9 xPts
  • L13 OctH · Club Brugge KV3–41.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Parma3–02.6 xPts
  • D19 SepA · AS Roma2–21.2 xPts
  • W14 SepH · Udinese5–32.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lazio Inter
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3Serie A 2026-2027, 3 Jan3Serie A 2026-2027, 3 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km479 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways468 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one44

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lazio Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Juventus (A) 3–0, 18 Oct
35C. Mandas(G)
17Nuno Tavares 25Oliver Provstgaard 37J. Šutalo 15R. Floriani Mussolini
24K. Taylor 21R. Belahyane 16D. Frattesi
10M. Zaccagni 14T. Noslin 11G. Isaksen
Inter Last XI · not confirmed
3-5-2 · vs Bologna (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
1Josep Martínez(G)
95A. Bastoni 25M. Akanji 31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco 8P. Sučić 7P. Zieliński 23N. Barella 11L. de Lima
94F. Esposito 9M. Thuram

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lazio Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Inter Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lazio · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
Inter · Away 2.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentLazioInter
Monza W 3–1 H W 4–1 H
Udinese W 2–1 A W 5–3 H
Bologna W 1–0 A W 3–1 A
Points9 of 9 · 3.00 per game9 of 9 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Lazio wins2 draws6 Inter wins
Goals per game1.10 – 2.30 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets0% · 40%
  • 9 May 2026Lazio0–3Inter
  • 9 Nov 2025Inter2–0Lazio
  • 18 May 2025Inter2–2Lazio
  • 16 Dec 2024Lazio0–6Inter
  • 19 May 2024Inter1–1Lazio
  • 17 Dec 2023Lazio0–2Inter

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LazioInterForecast
Scored per game 2.003.00
Conceded per game 0.571.29
Match goals 2.574.29
Over 1.5 71%86%
Over 2.5 57%86%
Over 3.5 29%71%
Both teams scored 43%71%
Clean sheets 57%29%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games77
LazioInterForecast
Scored per game 1.602.80
Conceded per game 1.001.80
Match goals 2.604.60
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 60%90%
Over 3.5 20%70%
Both teams scored 40%80%
Clean sheets 40%20%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LazioInterLeague
Corners
Corners won5.145.86
Corners conceded5.003.43
Match total10.149.299.38
Over 8.571% 5/757% 4/7
Over 9.557% 4/743% 3/7
Over 10.543% 3/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.861.57
Opponent cards3.292.00
Match total5.153.573.43
Over 3.586% 6/743% 3/7
Over 4.571% 5/729% 2/7
LazioInterLeague
Corners
Corners won4.906.00
Corners conceded4.403.20
Match total9.309.209.38
Over 8.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 9.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 10.530% 3/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.201.80
Opponent cards2.801.90
Match total5.003.703.43
Over 3.580% 8/1050% 5/10
Over 4.560% 6/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Lazio7 games · scored 14 · conceded 4
2 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
3 76-90
Inter7 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
3 3 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
5 2 46-60
3 61-75
5 1 76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
4 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 1 76-90
Inter10 games · scored 28 · conceded 18
3 4 0-15
3 5 16-30
4 2 31-45
5 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
9 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Serie A

View all fixtures →
Lazio Inter Jan 617:30 Sassuolo Udinese Jan 617:30 AC Milan Fiorentina Jan 617:30 Napoli Cagliari Jan 617:30 Genoa Monza Jan 617:30 Juventus Torino Jan 617:30 Atalanta Como Jan 617:30 Frosinone Bologna Jan 617:30 Venezia AS Roma Jan 617:30 Lecce Parma Jan 617:30