Lecce vs Parma – 6 Jan 2027

Serie A Gameweek 18 Wed, Jan 6 · 17:30 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 12th · 9 pts · 7 played LWLLW

VS— Compare

Parma 19th · 4 pts · 7 played DLWLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel810 kmRest days3 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Lecce—%

Draw—%

Parma—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Lecce)

Forecast from 22 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Lecce

Parma

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

36 AttackIn forecast 20

30 DefenceIn forecast 33

35 Form indexContext 23

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Parma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

Parma

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.57

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 0.67

1.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

57% Scored inContext 43%

29% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.14 ShotsContext 10.57

4.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.43

42% On target shareContext 32%

7.14 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

64% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 5%

2.60 OffsidesContext 1.83

14.86 Shots allowedContext 17.00

6.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.29

2.83 BlocksContext 4.29

4.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57

69% Save rateContext 68%

40% PossessionIn forecast 43%

346 PassesContext 394

271 Accurate passesContext 324

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.62

12.86 FoulsContext 9.86

9.14 Fouls sufferedContext 15.43

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.57

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 0.70

1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.77

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

60% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.40 ShotsContext 10.30

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

43% On target shareContext 31%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

68% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 7%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.11

13.80 Shots allowedContext 16.20

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

2.67 BlocksContext 4.50

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

69% Save rateContext 71%

37% PossessionIn forecast 42%

312 PassesContext 367

239 Accurate passesContext 300

77% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.71

12.10 FoulsContext 10.50

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce LWLLW

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,909 km in 14d

Schedule load13%Low

Form 35 · 6 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W18 OctA · Udinese3–00.9 xPts
L11 OctH · Bologna1–21.1 xPts
L20 SepA · AC Milan0–30.5 xPts
W13 SepH · Monza3–21.7 xPts
L7 SepA · Cagliari0–11.1 xPts

Parma DLWLL

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel810 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L19 OctH · Torino0–31.3 xPts
L10 OctA · Inter0–30.3 xPts
W20 SepH · Genoa2–11.6 xPts
L14 SepA · Como1–20.4 xPts
D6 SepH · Monza1–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	Parma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 13	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3Serie A 2026-2027, 3 Jan	3Serie A 2026-2027, 3 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	810 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,909 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Udinese (A) 3–0, 18 Oct

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga

14Y. Maleh 79Oumar Ngom 29L. Coulibaly

7A. Fatah 69W. Geubbels 11K. N’Dri

Parma Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Torino (H) 0–3, 19 Oct

40E. Corvi(G)

15E. Delprato 37Mariano Troilo 34Diego Carlos

14E. Valeri 16L. Keita 10Adrián Bernabé 27Sascha Britschgi

19E. Touré 80G. Fabbian

9D. Romero

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Parma Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.67

Parma · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Lecce	Parma
Monza	W 3–2 H	D 1–1 H
Cagliari	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Lecce wins1 draws1 Parma wins

Goals per game1.75 – 1.25 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

11 Jan 2026Lecce1–2Parma
4 Oct 2025Parma0–1Lecce
31 Jan 2025Parma1–3Lecce
21 Sep 2024Lecce2–2Parma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	Parma
Scored per game	1.29	0.57
Conceded per game	1.71	1.86
Match goals	3.00	2.43
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	71%	57%
Over 3.5	29%	0%
Both teams scored	29%	43%
Clean sheets	29%	0%
Failed to score	43%	57%
Games	7	7

	Lecce	Parma
Scored per game	1.30	0.70
Conceded per game	1.50	1.70
Match goals	2.80	2.40
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	30%	40%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	Parma	League
Corners
Corners won	4.57	3.29
Corners conceded	3.29	5.14
Match total	7.86	8.43	9.38
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.86	1.57
Opponent cards	0.86	1.71
Match total	2.72	3.28	3.43
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7

	Lecce	Parma	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	2.90
Corners conceded	3.80	5.80
Match total	8.00	8.70	9.38
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.70
Opponent cards	0.80	1.60
Match total	2.80	3.30	3.43
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.