LE Havre
Attack+28%
Defense risk−13%
Our take
LE Havre were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards LE Havre. LE Havre were without A. Seko. Auxerre were without C. Akpa and R. Labeau-Lascary. LE Havre had 8 days of rest, Auxerre 7 and had to travel 316 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel316 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
LE Havre46%
Draw24%
Auxerre30%
LE Havre39%
Draw27%
Auxerre33%
LE Havre46%
Draw25%
Auxerre29%
LE Havre38%
Draw25%
Auxerre37%
LE Havre46%
Draw24%
Auxerre30%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
11°CLight rain
- Precipitation 2.5 mm
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 80%
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 101
Team strength
LE Havre
Auxerre
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
20
AttackIn forecast
39
22
DefenceIn forecast
25
12
Form indexContext
31
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack+16%
Defense risk−20%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
LE HavreAuxerre
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.67
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.75
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
50%
Scored inContext
100%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
15.83
ShotsContext
11.67
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
28%
On target shareContext
43%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
63%
Box shareContext
42%
4%
ConversionContext
11%
1.67
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.83
Shots allowedContext
14.83
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.33
4.00
BlocksContext
4.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.83
74%
Save rateContext
61%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
406
PassesContext
379
340
Accurate passesContext
305
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.50
14.33
FoulsContext
13.67
13.83
Fouls sufferedContext
9.17
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.21
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.60
ShotsContext
11.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
43%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.13
63%
Box shareContext
47%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.43
12.90
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.78
BlocksContext
3.00
4.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
79%
Save rateContext
60%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
373
PassesContext
382
306
Accurate passesContext
309
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.67
14.20
FoulsContext
13.80
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
DLDLL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km491 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 12 · 2 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected
Auxerre
LLWWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel316 km784 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 31 · 6 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 316 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 491 km | 784 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
93G. Gallon(G)
5A. Touba
6J. Mwanga
20D. Ouziad
7M. Richardson
26S. Ebonog
14R. Ndiaye
25M. Samatta
9J. Maja
30S. Nakamura
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
1P. Nardi(G)
92C. Akpa
4A. Tuanzebe
15C. Makosso
22F. Oppegård
5K. Danois
8N. Ahamada
27L. Sy
10D. Namaso
21R. Faivre
9C. Archer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −9.4% · Defence line −23.2% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Seko Starter 6.78 Def −13.4%
- DEF E. Jelert Rotation 6.40 Def −4.2%
- ATT R. Fofana Rotation 6.50 Att −6.1%
- DEF T. Pembélé Rotation 6.51 Def −2.2%
- DEF Lionel M'Pasi Rotation 7.62 Def −1.5%
- DEF Stephan Zagadou Rotation 6.73 Def −1.4%
Auxerre
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −15.4% · Defence line −19.2% of weighted minutes
- DEF C. Akpa Starter 6.49 Def −9.2%
- ATT R. Labeau-Lascary Starter 6.73 Att −14.6%
- DEF B. Okoh Starter 7.14 Def −7.2%
- DEF M. Senaya Rotation 6.71 Def −2.6%
- ATT R. Mandengue Depth 6.34 Att −0.5%
- MID A. Dioussé Depth 6.65 Att −0.2% Def −0.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Auxerre+0.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Auxerre · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | LE Havre | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Angers | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Lyon | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 LE Havre wins1 draws0 Auxerre wins
Goals per game1.75 – 0.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 5 Apr 2026LE Havre1–1Auxerre
- 26 Oct 2025Auxerre0–1LE Havre
- 4 May 2025Auxerre1–2LE Havre
- 1 Sep 2024LE Havre3–1Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 83% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| LE Havre | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.80 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 80% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 7.67 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 13.50 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 6/6 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.33 | 3.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| LE Havre | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 6.30 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 11.60 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.50 | 3.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 101 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.10league 3.20
Red cards0.23league 0.14
Cards 5+22%league 25%
Fouls20.3league 23.7
Penalties0.37league 0.37
Home wins50%league 42%
LE Havre3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W30 Mar 25H · Nantes3–21
- L15 Sep 24A · Toulouse0–21
- D27 Aug 23A · Rennes2–22
Auxerre9 with this referee
Record3-2-4
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.3
Pens for · against3 · 2
- W3 May 26H · Angers3–12
- W7 Dec 25H · Metz3–12
- D19 Oct 25A · Rennes2–23
- L14 May 23A · Stade Brestois 290–10
- W16 Apr 23H · Nantes2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
LE Havre6 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
3
0-15
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Auxerre6 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
4
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 17 · conceded 21
1
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
6
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
