Lecce vs AC Milan – 29 Aug 2025

Serie A Gameweek 2 Fri, Aug 29 · 19:45 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 14th · 1 pts · 1 played D

0–2Full time

AC Milan 15th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AC Milan were slight favourites.

AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 24). AC Milan usually keep the ball (55% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Lecce had 6.1 days of rest, AC Milan 6 and had to travel 925 km.

Away travel925 kmRest days6.1 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lecce22%

Draw27%

AC Milan51%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.57

Lecce23%

Draw25%

AC Milan52%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.71

Lecce22%

Draw27%

AC Milan51%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.57

Lecce17%

Draw24%

AC Milan59%

Expected goals 0.84 – 1.76

Lecce23%

Draw25%

AC Milan52%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.71

Over 2.5 46% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lecce)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyLivio Marinelli

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 53

Team strength

Lecce

AC Milan

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 66

36 AttackIn forecast 72

30 DefenceIn forecast 69

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

AC Milan

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.53

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

60% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.20 ShotsContext 14.80

3.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

26% On target shareContext 29%

6.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

54% Box shareContext 61%

5% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

13.60 Shots allowedContext 10.50

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.30 BlocksContext 2.56

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

84% Save rateContext 74%

40% PossessionIn forecast 52%

298 PassesContext 477

221 Accurate passesContext 420

74% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.98

11.50 FoulsContext 9.60

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,762 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AC Milan

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel925 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	AC Milan
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Aug	6Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	925 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,762 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	15.8	16

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga

29L. Coulibaly 20Y. Ramadani 77M. Kaba

7Tete Morente 22F. Camarda 50S. Pierotti

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 46M. Gabbia 23O. Tomori

2P. Estupiñán 19Y. Fofana 14L. Modrić 80Y. Musah

56A. Saelemaekers 8R. Loftus-Cheek

7S. Giménez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Absences are shown before kick-off

AC Milan Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lecce+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AC Milan+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home No home games yet this season.

AC Milan · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Lecce wins2 draws4 AC Milan wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.50 Over 2.583% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

8 Mar 2025Lecce2–3AC Milan
27 Sep 2024AC Milan3–0Lecce
6 Apr 2024AC Milan3–0Lecce
11 Nov 2023Lecce2–2AC Milan
23 Apr 2023AC Milan2–0Lecce
14 Jan 2023Lecce2–2AC Milan

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	0.00	3.00	2.52
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	49%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Lecce	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	0.00	3.00	2.52
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	49%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	7.00
Corners conceded	3.00	2.00
Match total	10.00	9.00	8.40
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	4.00
Match total	5.00	5.00	3.90
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Lecce	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	5.20
Corners conceded	6.00	4.60
Match total	11.50	9.80	8.40
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.80
Opponent cards	2.10	1.90
Match total	3.90	3.70	3.90
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Livio Marinelli Italy · 53 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.64league 3.82

Red cards0.19league 0.18

Cards 5+42%league 55%

Fouls23.5league 25.2

Penalties0.32league 0.18

Home wins42%league 45%

Lecce6 with this referee

Record1-3-2 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.5 Pens for · against2 · 3 Reds1

L28 Feb 25A · Fiorentina0–12
L26 Jan 25H · Inter0–40
D5 Jan 25H · Genoa0–00
D17 Sep 23A · Monza1–12
W4 Jan 23H · Lazio2–13

AC Milan6 with this referee

Record5-1-0 Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 0

W9 May 25H · Bologna3–12
W20 Dec 24A · Verona1–01
W30 Dec 23H · Sassuolo1–00
W22 Oct 22H · Monza4–11
W13 Aug 22H · Udinese4–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.