Lecce
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lecce23.3%fair odds 4.30
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.73
Bologna49.9%fair odds 2.00
Expected goals0.98 – 1.55total 2.53
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bologna
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lecce ↓ · Bologna → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lecce goals, columns Bologna goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.84
- 0–111.7%8.53
- 0–29.6%10.45
- 1–29.4%10.67
- 0–08.6%11.59
- 1–07.2%13.93
- 2–15.9%16.87
- 0–34.9%20.24
- 1–34.8%20.67
- 2–24.6%21.79
Winning margin
2.3%
Lecce by 3+
fair 43.43
6.2%
Lecce by 2
fair 16.21
14.8%
Lecce by 1
fair 6.75
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.73
23.8%
Bologna by 1
fair 4.20
15.4%
Bologna by 2
fair 6.48
10.7%
Bologna by 3+
fair 9.35
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
14%4
11%5+
Lecce goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
Bologna goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce win | 23.3% | 23.9% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 25.5% | +1.3 pp |
| Bologna win | 49.9% | 50.5% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.3% | 51.9% | -5.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.8% | 54.2% | -4.4 pp |
| Expected goals Lecce | 0.98 | 1.08 | -0.10 |
| Expected goals Bologna | 1.55 | 1.67 | -0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lecce win23.3%4.30
- Draw26.8%3.73
- Bologna win49.9%2.00
- Double chance Lecce or draw50.1%2.00
- Double chance Lecce or Bologna73.2%1.37
- Double chance Bologna or draw76.7%1.30
- Draw no bet Lecce31.8%3.14
- Draw no bet Bologna68.2%1.47
Goals
- Over 0.591.4%1.09
- Over 1.572.5%1.38
- Over 2.546.3%2.16
- Over 3.524.8%4.03
- Over 4.511.3%8.89
- Under 1.527.5%3.63
- Under 2.553.7%1.86
- Under 3.575.2%1.33
Both teams to score
- Yes49.8%2.01
- No50.2%1.99
- Yes and over 2.537.1%2.70
- Lecce win and yes10.6%9.39
- Draw and yes18.2%5.50
- Bologna win and yes21.0%4.77
Team goals
- Lecce over 0.562.4%1.60
- Lecce over 1.525.7%3.90
- Lecce over 2.57.6%13.07
- Bologna over 0.578.7%1.27
- Bologna over 1.545.8%2.18
- Bologna over 2.520.3%4.92
- Lecce clean sheet21.3%4.70
- Bologna clean sheet37.6%2.66
- Lecce win to nil12.6%7.92
- Bologna win to nil28.9%3.46
Handicap
- Lecce −1.58.5%11.81
- Lecce −2.52.3%43.43
- Bologna +1.591.5%1.09
- Bologna +2.597.7%1.02
- Bologna −1.526.1%3.83
- Lecce +1.573.9%1.35
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored46
Favourite won52.2%
Avg chance given to result41.3%
1X2 Brier0.605
Over 2.5 called right58.7%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 37.4% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 14 | 44.3% | 42.9% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 52.9% | 44.4% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 63.4% | 62.5% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 73.0% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 81.0% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 26 of 46 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6032 | 0.5791 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 41.3% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 53.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 26 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 46 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.