Lecce vs Bologna – 28 Sep 2025

Serie A Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 28 · 17:00 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 20th · 1 pts · 4 played DLLL

2–2Full time

Bologna 11th · 6 pts · 4 played LWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bologna were slight favourites.

Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 21). Lecce had 8.9 days of rest, Bologna 2.9 and had to travel 725 km.

Away travel725 kmRest days8.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 3

Lecce23%

Draw27%

Bologna50%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.55

Lecce24%

Draw25%

Bologna51%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.68

Lecce23%

Draw27%

Bologna50%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.55

Lecce18%

Draw25%

Bologna57%

Expected goals 0.87 – 1.74

Lecce24%

Draw26%

Bologna51%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.67

Over 2.5 46% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lecce)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 38

Team strength

Lecce

Bologna

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 55

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

36 AttackIn forecast 35

30 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

Bologna

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.75

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75

0.58 xGVia Att/Def 0.80

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.79

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

50% Scored inContext 50%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

9.25 ShotsContext 11.00

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

27% On target shareContext 23%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.75

62% Box shareContext 68%

5% ConversionContext 7%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.25

13.25 Shots allowedContext 11.75

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

2.50 BlocksContext 3.00

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

64% Save rateContext 75%

46% PossessionIn forecast 51%

351 PassesContext 386

281 Accurate passesContext 309

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.60 Team ratingContext 6.82

9.75 FoulsContext 13.25

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.75

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.70 xGVia Att/Def 0.95

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

60% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.80 ShotsContext 12.00

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56

32% On target shareContext 27%

5.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

56% Box shareContext 61%

6% ConversionContext 7%

1.67 OffsidesContext 3.10

13.30 Shots allowedContext 9.70

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

2.70 BlocksContext 3.00

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

75% Save rateContext 69%

41% PossessionIn forecast 56%

310 PassesContext 410

238 Accurate passesContext 340

77% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.50 FoulsContext 12.70

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 16.80

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bologna

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel725 km3,032 km in 14d

Schedule load39%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	Bologna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 39
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.9Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Sep	2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	725 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	3,032 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 21Owen Kouassi

10M. Berisha 20Y. Ramadani 29L. Coulibaly

7Tete Morente 9N. Štulić 50S. Pierotti

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

33Juan Miranda 14T. Heggem 26J. Lucumí 2E. Holm

6N. Moro 19L. Ferguson

11J. Rowe 80G. Fabbian 7R. Orsolini

24T. Dallinga

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Absences are shown before kick-off

Bologna Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lecce+0.4 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Bologna-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 0.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.00

Bologna · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Lecce	Bologna
AC Milan	L 0–2 H	L 0–1 A
Genoa	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 H
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Lecce wins2 draws4 Bologna wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.83 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets17% · 67%

9 Feb 2025Lecce0–0Bologna
2 Nov 2024Bologna1–0Lecce
11 Feb 2024Bologna4–0Lecce
3 Dec 2023Lecce1–1Bologna
4 Jun 2023Lecce2–3Bologna
23 Oct 2022Bologna2–0Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	0.75
Conceded per game	2.00	0.75
Match goals	2.50	1.50	2.53
Over 1.5	75%	25%
Over 2.5	50%	25%	46%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	25%	50%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	4	4

	Lecce	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	0.60
Conceded per game	2.00	0.80
Match goals	2.50	1.40	2.53
Over 1.5	75%	20%
Over 2.5	50%	20%	46%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	20%	50%
Clean sheets	25%	20%
Failed to score	50%	60%
Games	4	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	5.75
Corners conceded	5.75	3.75
Match total	10.00	9.50	9.34
Over 8.5	100% 4/4	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	75% 3/4	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.00
Opponent cards	1.25	3.25
Match total	2.75	5.25	3.63
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4

	Lecce	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	6.30
Corners conceded	6.20	3.70
Match total	10.90	10.00	9.34
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.20
Opponent cards	1.80	2.90
Match total	3.50	5.10	3.63
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 38 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.42league 3.48

Red cards0.13league 0.13

Cards 5+55%league 33%

Fouls26.0league 26.0

Penalties0.26league 0.20

Home wins47%league 39%

Lecce4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

D9 Feb 25H · Bologna0–00
L20 Oct 24H · Fiorentina0–61
L3 May 23A · Juventus1–22
D4 Nov 22A · Udinese1–13

Bologna3 with this referee

Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

D9 Feb 25A · Lecce0–02
W29 Oct 24A · Cagliari2–02
D21 Sep 21H · Genoa2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.