Lecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Lecce had 5.2 days of rest, Cagliari 6.2 and had to travel 783 km.
Away travel783 kmRest days5.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lecce38%
Draw29%
Cagliari32%
Lecce40%
Draw27%
Cagliari33%
Lecce38%
Draw29%
Cagliari32%
Lecce32%
Draw29%
Cagliari39%
Lecce40%
Draw27%
Cagliari33%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lecce)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 26
Team strength
Lecce
Cagliari
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
36
AttackIn forecast
31
30
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LecceCagliari
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
0.45
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
33%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.67
ShotsContext
12.00
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
19%
On target shareContext
33%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
59%
Box shareContext
56%
4%
ConversionContext
8%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.67
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
2.33
BlocksContext
4.67
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.50
63%
Save rateContext
100%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
342
PassesContext
353
269
Accurate passesContext
289
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.53
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.67
FoulsContext
14.00
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.10
ShotsContext
9.70
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
29%
On target shareContext
33%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.22
55%
Box shareContext
61%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.89
14.00
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.10
BlocksContext
4.00
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
76%
Save rateContext
69%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
306
PassesContext
344
232
Accurate passesContext
276
76%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.50
FoulsContext
11.70
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lecce
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,821 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Cagliari
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel783 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lecce |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 783 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,821 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
21Owen Kouassi
6Álex Sala
20Y. Ramadani
29L. Coulibaly
23R. Sottil
9N. Štulić
50S. Pierotti
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
6S. Luperto
26Y. Mina
90M. Folorunsho
14A. Deiola
16M. Prati
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
19A. Belotti
94S. Esposito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lecce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lecce-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cagliari+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Lecce · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Cagliari · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Lecce wins2 draws1 Cagliari wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 19 Jan 2025Cagliari4–1Lecce
- 31 Aug 2024Lecce1–0Cagliari
- 5 May 2024Cagliari1–1Lecce
- 6 Jan 2024Lecce1–1Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lecce | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 1.67 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 0% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Lecce | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 1.67 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 0% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lecce | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 7.00 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 4.34 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Lecce | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 8.78 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.40 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.62league 3.63
Red cards0.12league 0.10
Cards 5+23%league 37%
Fouls23.4league 25.9
Penalties0.19league 0.13
Home wins65%league 43%
Lecce3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L12 Apr 25A · Juventus1–21
- L27 Sep 24A · AC Milan0–31
- W16 Dec 23H · Frosinone2–11
Cagliari1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L2 Mar 25A · Bologna1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lecce3 games · scored 1 · conceded 6
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Cagliari3 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
