Lecce
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lecce38.4%fair odds 2.61
Draw29.3%fair odds 3.42
Cagliari32.4%fair odds 3.09
Expected goals1.24 – 1.12total 2.36
Likeliest score1–113.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Cagliari
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lecce ↓ · Cagliari → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lecce goals, columns Cagliari goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.8%7.24
- 1–011.0%9.07
- 0–010.1%9.86
- 0–19.9%10.14
- 2–18.1%12.29
- 1–27.3%13.64
- 2–07.3%13.74
- 0–25.9%16.93
- 2–24.6%21.97
- 3–13.4%29.69
Winning margin
5.8%
Lecce by 3+
fair 17.24
11.3%
Lecce by 2
fair 8.86
21.3%
Lecce by 1
fair 4.70
29.3%
Draw
fair 3.42
19.1%
Cagliari by 1
fair 5.23
9.2%
Cagliari by 2
fair 10.92
4.1%
Cagliari by 3+
fair 24.40
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
21%1
27%2
21%3
12%4
9%5+
Lecce goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Cagliari goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce win | 38.4% | 39.7% | -1.3 pp |
| Draw | 29.3% | 27.2% | +2.1 pp |
| Cagliari win | 32.4% | 33.2% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 42.0% | 50.2% | -8.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.6% | 55.0% | -6.5 pp |
| Expected goals Lecce | 1.24 | 1.41 | -0.17 |
| Expected goals Cagliari | 1.12 | 1.27 | -0.15 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lecce win38.4%2.61
- Draw29.3%3.42
- Cagliari win32.4%3.09
- Double chance Lecce or draw67.6%1.48
- Double chance Lecce or Cagliari70.7%1.41
- Double chance Cagliari or draw61.6%1.62
- Draw no bet Lecce54.2%1.84
- Draw no bet Cagliari45.8%2.19
Goals
- Over 0.589.9%1.11
- Over 1.569.0%1.45
- Over 2.542.0%2.38
- Over 3.521.3%4.70
- Over 4.59.1%11.00
- Under 1.531.0%3.22
- Under 2.558.0%1.72
- Under 3.578.7%1.27
Both teams to score
- Yes48.6%2.06
- No51.4%1.94
- Yes and over 2.534.8%2.88
- Lecce win and yes15.8%6.32
- Draw and yes19.1%5.23
- Cagliari win and yes13.6%7.35
Team goals
- Lecce over 0.571.1%1.41
- Lecce over 1.535.2%2.84
- Lecce over 2.513.0%7.71
- Cagliari over 0.567.3%1.49
- Cagliari over 1.530.8%3.25
- Cagliari over 2.510.3%9.68
- Lecce clean sheet32.7%3.06
- Cagliari clean sheet28.9%3.46
- Lecce win to nil22.5%4.44
- Cagliari win to nil18.8%5.33
Handicap
- Lecce −1.517.1%5.85
- Lecce −2.55.8%17.24
- Cagliari +1.582.9%1.21
- Cagliari +2.594.2%1.06
- Cagliari −1.513.3%7.54
- Lecce +1.586.7%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored30
Favourite won53.3%
Avg chance given to result40.0%
1X2 Brier0.629
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right53.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 37.6% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 44.2% | 36.4% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 52.1% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 63.8% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.0% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.1% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 10 of 30 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6737 | 0.6406 |
| Avg chance given to result | 35.7% | 37.2% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 10 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 30 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.