Lecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 24). Como usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Lecce had 14.8 days of rest, Como 11.8 and had to travel 954 km.
Away travel954 kmRest days14.8 · 11.8Matches / 14d0 · 1
Lecce26%
Draw27%
Como47%
Lecce27%
Draw26%
Como46%
Lecce26%
Draw27%
Como46%
Lecce20%
Draw25%
Como54%
Lecce27%
Draw26%
Como47%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lecce)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marchetti
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 47
Team strength
Lecce
Como
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
36
AttackIn forecast
72
30
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LecceComo
0.73
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
53%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.13
ShotsContext
13.60
2.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
26%
On target shareContext
35%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.07
58%
Box shareContext
58%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
1.27
OffsidesContext
1.40
11.67
Shots allowedContext
10.67
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.87
3.07
BlocksContext
3.46
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
70%
Save rateContext
75%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
343
PassesContext
493
264
Accurate passesContext
426
77%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.87
FoulsContext
14.07
13.73
Fouls sufferedContext
13.07
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
50%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.40
ShotsContext
12.70
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
26%
On target shareContext
38%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
54%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.29
OffsidesContext
1.33
10.80
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.00
BlocksContext
3.22
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
75%
Save rateContext
80%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
350
PassesContext
503
266
Accurate passesContext
436
76%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.92
14.10
FoulsContext
13.20
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lecce
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest11.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel954 km1,030 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lecce |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.8Serie A 2025-2026, 12 Dec | 11.8Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 954 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,030 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
5J. Siebert
17Danilo Veiga
20Y. Ramadani
23R. Sottil
93Y. Maleh
77M. Kaba
50S. Pierotti
9N. Štulić
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
18Alberto Moreno
34Diego Carlos
14Jacobo Ramón
28I. Smolčić
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
17Jesús Rodríguez
10N. Paz
31M. Vojvoda
11A. Douvikas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lecce
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lecce-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Como+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Lecce · Home
1.13points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Como · Away
1.13points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Lecce | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Torino | W 2–1 H | W 5–1 A |
| Lazio | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Napoli | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Sassuolo | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Parma | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Bologna | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Atalanta | L 1–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| Genoa | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 13 of 36 · 1.08 per game | 21 of 36 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Lecce wins0 draws2 Como wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 19 Apr 2025Lecce0–3Como
- 30 Dec 2024Como2–0Lecce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lecce | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.73 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.27 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.07 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 53% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 27% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 47% | 40% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Lecce | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 2.10 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 30% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lecce | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.93 | 3.83 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 7.33 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 87% 13/15 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 10/15 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 6/15 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.47 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.47 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 8/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 5/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Lecce | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 6.89 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.70 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marchetti Italy · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.89league 3.90
Red cards0.19league 0.17
Cards 5+43%league 39%
Fouls25.3league 26.0
Penalties0.23league 0.31
Home wins43%league 40%
Lecce1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W28 Apr 23H · Udinese1–04
Como3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W28 Nov 25H · Sassuolo2–02
- L15 Mar 25A · AC Milan1–24
- L24 Nov 24H · Fiorentina0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lecce15 games · scored 11 · conceded 19
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
6
61-75
3
4
76-90
Como14 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Como10 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
