Lecce vs Inter – 21 Feb 2026

Serie A Gameweek 26 Sat, Feb 21 · 17:00 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 17th · 24 pts · 25 played LDLWW

0–2Full time

Inter 1st · 61 pts · 25 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Inter were clear favourites.

Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lecce. Lecce had 4.9 days of rest, Inter 6.9 and had to travel 925 km.

Away travel925 kmRest days4.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Lecce13%

Draw22%

Inter64%

Expected goals 0.74 – 1.90

Lecce10%

Draw18%

Inter71%

Expected goals 0.77 – 2.31

Lecce13%

Draw22%

Inter66%

Expected goals 0.73 – 1.95

Lecce10%

Draw19%

Inter71%

Expected goals 0.66 – 2.13

Lecce14%

Draw21%

Inter65%

Expected goals 0.81 – 2.02

Over 2.5 49% Both score 45% Likeliest score 0–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lecce)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyGianluca Manganiello

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 54

Team strength

Lecce

Inter

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 85

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

36 AttackIn forecast 91

30 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

Inter

0.68 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.24 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.84

0.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.90

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.77

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.50

48% Scored inContext 96%

32% Clean sheetsContext 52%

10.04 ShotsContext 18.12

2.61 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20

24% On target shareContext 34%

5.75 Shots in the boxContext 12.60

55% Box shareContext 70%

7% ConversionContext 13%

1.44 OffsidesContext 1.95

12.44 Shots allowedContext 8.32

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.23

3.56 BlocksContext 2.86

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.45

70% Save rateContext 77%

44% PossessionIn forecast 60%

334 PassesContext 533

254 Accurate passesContext 466

76% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.73 Team ratingContext 7.07

12.40 FoulsContext 13.64

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.52

1.72 Yellow cardsContext 1.52

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.68 xGVia Att/Def 1.73

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.82

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.67

40% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

9.90 ShotsContext 17.90

2.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20

20% On target shareContext 35%

5.67 Shots in the boxContext 13.50

50% Box shareContext 76%

6% ConversionContext 13%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.60 Shots allowedContext 8.80

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

4.30 BlocksContext 3.00

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10

71% Save rateContext 62%

41% PossessionIn forecast 60%

321 PassesContext 544

239 Accurate passesContext 477

75% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.70 Team ratingContext 7.03

11.70 FoulsContext 10.60

13.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,566 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Inter

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel925 km283 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	Inter
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Serie A 2025-2026, 16 Feb	6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	925 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,566 km	283 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga

29L. Coulibaly 20Y. Ramadani 16O. Gandelman

23R. Sottil 99W. Cheddira 50S. Pierotti

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Inter Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Y. Sommer(G)

95A. Bastoni 6S. de Vrij 31Y. Bisseck

32F. Dimarco 8P. Sučić 7P. Zieliński 16D. Frattesi 11L. de Lima

94F. Esposito 9M. Thuram

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Inter Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lecce+0.7 pp
Draw+0.7 pp
Inter-1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 1.00points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 3-4-6
Scored: 0.69
Conceded: 1.23

Inter · Away 2.50points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 10-0-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Lecce	Inter
Cagliari	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H	W 2–0 A
Udinese	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A	W 1–0 AL 1–2 H
Torino	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	W 5–0 H
Lazio	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	W 2–0 H
AC Milan	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	L 0–1 H
Parma	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	W 2–0 A
AS Roma	L 0–2 H	W 1–0 A
Juventus	D 1–1 A	W 3–2 HL 3–4 A
Como	L 0–3 H	W 4–0 H
Pisa	W 1–0 H	W 6–2 HW 2–0 A
Cremonese	L 0–2 A	W 2–0 AW 4–1 H
Verona	D 0–0 H	W 2–1 A
Fiorentina	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 H
Napoli	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A
Sassuolo	D 0–0 H	W 5–0 AW 2–1 H
Bologna	D 2–2 H	W 3–1 H
Atalanta	L 1–4 A	W 1–0 A
Genoa	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 A
Points	24 of 72 · 1.00 per game	58 of 72 · 2.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

0 Lecce wins0 draws7 Inter wins

Goals per game0.14 – 2.43 Over 2.543% Both scored14% Clean sheets0% · 86%

14 Jan 2026Inter1–0Lecce
26 Jan 2025Lecce0–4Inter
24 Aug 2024Inter2–0Lecce
25 Feb 2024Lecce0–4Inter
23 Dec 2023Inter2–0Lecce
5 Mar 2023Inter2–0Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	0.68	2.40
Conceded per game	1.24	0.84
Match goals	1.92	3.24	2.64
Over 1.5	56%	80%
Over 2.5	32%	60%	49%
Over 3.5	12%	40%
Both teams scored	32%	44%	45%
Clean sheets	32%	52%
Failed to score	52%	4%
Games	25	25

	Lecce	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	2.60
Conceded per game	1.20	0.70
Match goals	1.80	3.30	2.64
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	45%
Clean sheets	20%	60%
Failed to score	60%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	6.48
Corners conceded	5.29	2.72
Match total	9.79	9.20	8.75
Over 8.5	79% 19/24	60% 15/25
Over 9.5	63% 15/24	52% 13/25
Over 10.5	42% 10/24	40% 10/25
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.52
Opponent cards	1.56	1.76
Match total	3.36	3.28	3.97
Over 3.5	48% 12/25	28% 7/25
Over 4.5	28% 7/25	20% 5/25

	Lecce	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	5.10
Corners conceded	5.89	3.10
Match total	8.89	8.20	8.75
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.40
Opponent cards	1.30	1.80
Match total	3.30	3.20	3.97
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gianluca Manganiello Italy · 54 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.44league 3.79

Red cards0.15league 0.19

Cards 5+33%league 37%

Fouls24.1league 25.4

Penalties0.22league 0.32

Home wins41%league 37%

Lecce7 with this referee

Record0-0-7 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L14 Sep 25A · Atalanta1–40
L29 Mar 25H · AS Roma0–11
L21 Dec 24H · Lazio1–24
L11 Feb 24A · Bologna0–42
L30 Dec 23A · Atalanta0–12

Inter5 with this referee

Record5-0-0 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 0

W9 Nov 25H · Lazio2–03
W3 May 25H · Verona1–01
W5 Mar 23H · Lecce2–00
W6 May 22H · Empoli4–21
W27 Aug 21A · Verona3–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.