Lecce vs Udinese – 8 Feb 2026

Serie A Gameweek 24 Sun, Feb 8 · 14:00 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 18th · 18 pts · 23 played LLLDL

2–1Full time

Udinese 9th · 32 pts · 23 played WDLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Udinese were slight favourites.

Udinese were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Udinese. Lecce had 7.1 days of rest, Udinese 5.8 and had to travel 750 km.

Away travel750 kmRest days7.1 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Lecce30%

Draw31%

Udinese39%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.16

Lecce34%

Draw27%

Udinese39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.40

Lecce29%

Draw31%

Udinese40%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.19

Lecce25%

Draw30%

Udinese46%

Expected goals 0.88 – 1.30

Lecce31%

Draw29%

Udinese40%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.31

Over 2.5 36% Both score 44% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lecce)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyAntonio Rapuano

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 54

Team strength

Lecce

Udinese

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

36 AttackIn forecast 22

30 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Udinese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

Udinese

0.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.48

0.71 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

43% Scored inContext 78%

30% Clean sheetsContext 22%

9.65 ShotsContext 11.57

2.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.82

23% On target shareContext 32%

5.36 Shots in the boxContext 6.67

54% Box shareContext 55%

6% ConversionContext 10%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.88

12.78 Shots allowedContext 11.91

4.45 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.24

3.70 BlocksContext 3.26

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71

70% Save rateContext 64%

43% PossessionIn forecast 46%

334 PassesContext 353

255 Accurate passesContext 284

76% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.52 FoulsContext 13.57

13.43 Fouls sufferedContext 11.87

1.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.83

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

0.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

30% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.00 ShotsContext 11.70

1.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.89

15% On target shareContext 30%

5.89 Shots in the boxContext 6.67

51% Box shareContext 53%

3% ConversionContext 10%

1.40 OffsidesContext 2.11

13.40 Shots allowedContext 11.80

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

4.50 BlocksContext 3.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

69% Save rateContext 63%

42% PossessionIn forecast 44%

326 PassesContext 351

247 Accurate passesContext 279

76% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.82

12.30 FoulsContext 13.60

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,006 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Udinese

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel750 km375 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	Udinese
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Feb	5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	750 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,006 km	375 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8.2	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga

29L. Coulibaly 20Y. Ramadani

23R. Sottil 16O. Gandelman 50S. Pierotti

99W. Cheddira

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Udinese Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40M. Okoye(G)

13N. Bertola 31T. Kristensen 28O. Solet

33J. Zemura 8J. Karlström 38L. Miller 19K. Ehizibue

14A. Atta 32J. Ekkelenkamp

15V. Bayo

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Udinese Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lecce+1.0 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Udinese-1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 0.83points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 2-4-6
Scored: 0.58
Conceded: 1.25

Udinese · Away 1.45points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 5-1-5
Scored: 1.27
Conceded: 1.64

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Lecce	Udinese
Torino	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–1 A
Lazio	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 H
AC Milan	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	L 0–3 H
Inter	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 HW 2–1 A
Parma	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	W 2–0 A
AS Roma	L 0–2 H	W 1–0 HL 0–2 A
Juventus	D 1–1 A	L 1–3 A
Como	L 0–3 H	L 0–1 A
Pisa	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A
Cremonese	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 A
Verona	D 0–0 H	W 3–1 AD 1–1 H
Fiorentina	W 1–0 A	L 1–5 A
Napoli	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 H
Sassuolo	D 0–0 H	L 1–3 A
Bologna	D 2–2 H	L 0–3 H
Cagliari	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
Atalanta	L 1–4 A	W 1–0 H
Genoa	D 0–0 A	L 1–2 H
Points	18 of 66 · 0.82 per game	29 of 66 · 1.32 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Lecce wins2 draws4 Udinese wins

Goals per game0.71 – 1.29 Over 2.514% Both scored43% Clean sheets14% · 43%

25 Oct 2025Udinese3–2Lecce
21 Feb 2025Lecce0–1Udinese
5 Oct 2024Udinese1–0Lecce
13 May 2024Lecce0–2Udinese
23 Oct 2023Udinese1–1Lecce
28 Apr 2023Lecce1–0Udinese

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	0.57	1.13
Conceded per game	1.30	1.48
Match goals	1.87	2.61	2.15
Over 1.5	52%	74%
Over 2.5	30%	48%	36%
Over 3.5	13%	26%
Both teams scored	30%	57%	44%
Clean sheets	30%	22%
Failed to score	57%	22%
Games	23	23

	Lecce	Udinese	Forecast
Scored per game	0.30	1.20
Conceded per game	1.30	1.40
Match goals	1.60	2.60	2.15
Over 1.5	50%	60%
Over 2.5	20%	50%	36%
Over 3.5	0%	30%
Both teams scored	20%	60%	44%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	70%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	4.61	4.55
Corners conceded	5.22	4.41
Match total	9.83	8.96	8.75
Over 8.5	78% 18/23	45% 10/22
Over 9.5	65% 15/23	41% 9/22
Over 10.5	43% 10/23	36% 8/22
Cards
Cards	1.91	1.87
Opponent cards	1.61	1.78
Match total	3.52	3.65	3.98
Over 3.5	52% 12/23	52% 12/23
Over 4.5	30% 7/23	30% 7/23

	Lecce	Udinese	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	4.10
Corners conceded	5.20	4.00
Match total	9.40	8.10	8.75
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.70
Opponent cards	1.30	2.00
Match total	3.60	3.70	3.98
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Antonio Rapuano Italy · 54 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.50league 3.83

Red cards0.33league 0.18

Cards 5+48%league 37%

Fouls25.5league 25.6

Penalties0.26league 0.32

Home wins50%league 38%

Lecce5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.0.8 · 3.2 Pens for · against0 · 0

W2 Nov 25A · Fiorentina1–01
W18 May 25H · Torino1–01
D1 Dec 24H · Juventus1–11
L18 May 24H · Atalanta0–20
W22 Sep 23H · Genoa1–01

Udinese3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.1.7 · 4.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

L20 Aug 23H · Juventus0–31
W6 Feb 22H · Torino2–03
L23 Sep 21A · AS Roma0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.