Leeds vs Aston Villa – 23 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 12 Sun, Nov 23 · 14:00 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire

Leeds 18th · 11 pts · 11 played LLWLL

1–2Full time

Aston Villa 9th · 18 pts · 11 played WWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Aston Villa were slight favourites.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 60). Absences weigh more on Aston Villa. Leeds had 14 days of rest, Aston Villa 14 and had to travel 148 km.

Away travel148 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1

Leeds31%

Draw25%

Aston Villa44%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.64

Leeds29%

Draw27%

Aston Villa45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.53

Leeds29%

Draw25%

Aston Villa46%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.65

Leeds24%

Draw24%

Aston Villa52%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.84

Leeds30%

Draw27%

Aston Villa43%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.51

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeRobert Jones

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 128

Team strength

Leeds

Aston Villa

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 82

73 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

69 AttackIn forecast 83

77 DefenceIn forecast 78

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Leeds

Aston Villa

0.91 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.18

1.82 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.91

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 0.85

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

55% Scored inContext 55%

18% Clean sheetsContext 36%

12.00 ShotsContext 10.82

3.45 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.55

29% On target shareContext 33%

7.91 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

62% Box shareContext 58%

8% ConversionContext 11%

1.38 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.55 Shots allowedContext 12.45

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.18

3.33 BlocksContext 4.45

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.18

64% Save rateContext 69%

48% PossessionIn forecast 54%

430 PassesContext 436

354 Accurate passesContext 371

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.00 FoulsContext 9.55

11.64 Fouls sufferedContext 14.09

1.45 Yellow cardsContext 1.73

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.64

50% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.10 ShotsContext 11.50

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

32% On target shareContext 43%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

62% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 16%

1.43 OffsidesContext 1.75

10.90 Shots allowedContext 11.80

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.38 BlocksContext 4.11

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

63% Save rateContext 80%

48% PossessionIn forecast 54%

425 PassesContext 433

349 Accurate passesContext 373

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.98

10.40 FoulsContext 10.11

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 15.30

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km195 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Aston Villa

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel148 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Leeds	Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14Premier League 2025-2026, 9 Nov	14Premier League 2025-2026, 9 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	148 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	195 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Lucas Perri(G)

3G. Gudmundsson 5P. Struijk 6J. Rodon 2J. Bogle

18A. Stach 4E. Ampadu 8S. Longstaff

19N. Okafor 14L. Nmecha 11B. Aaronson

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-4-2

23E. Martínez(G)

12L. Digne 14Pau Torres 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

10E. Buendía 8Y. Tielemans 44B. Kamara 7J. McGinn

11O. Watkins 27M. Rogers

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Leeds Absences are shown before kick-off

Aston Villa Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Leeds+2.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Aston Villa-1.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home 1.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-1
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.00

Aston Villa · Away 1.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-2
Scored: 0.60
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Leeds	Aston Villa
Burnley	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 H
Tottenham	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 A
Bournemouth	D 2–2 H	W 4–0 H
Fulham	L 0–1 A	W 3–1 H
Newcastle	D 0–0 H	D 0–0 H
Everton	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Points	5 of 18 · 0.83 per game	14 of 18 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Leeds wins2 draws3 Aston Villa wins

Goals per game1.17 – 1.50 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 50%

13 Jan 2023Aston Villa2–1Leeds
2 Oct 2022Leeds0–0Aston Villa
10 Mar 2022Leeds0–3Aston Villa
9 Feb 2022Aston Villa3–3Leeds
27 Feb 2021Leeds0–1Aston Villa
23 Oct 2020Aston Villa0–3Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Leeds	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	0.91	1.18
Conceded per game	1.82	0.91
Match goals	2.73	2.09	2.97
Over 1.5	73%	64%
Over 2.5	64%	45%	57%
Over 3.5	36%	18%
Both teams scored	45%	36%	60%
Clean sheets	18%	36%
Failed to score	45%	45%
Games	11	11

	Leeds	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.80
Conceded per game	2.00	0.70
Match goals	2.90	2.50	2.97
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	60%
Clean sheets	10%	50%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Leeds	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	5.36
Corners conceded	3.20	5.36
Match total	7.90	10.72	9.97
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	91% 10/11
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	82% 9/11
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	64% 7/11
Cards
Cards	1.45	1.82
Opponent cards	1.55	2.36
Match total	3.00	4.18	3.78
Over 3.5	27% 3/11	73% 8/11
Over 4.5	18% 2/11	45% 5/11

	Leeds	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	4.90
Corners conceded	3.33	4.70
Match total	7.77	9.60	9.97
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.60
Opponent cards	1.50	2.40
Match total	3.10	4.00	3.78
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Jones 128 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.92league 3.68

Red cards0.11league 0.10

Cards 5+40%league 41%

Fouls22.8league 21.9

Penalties0.24league 0.19

Home wins47%league 52%

Leeds7 with this referee

Record3-1-3 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.6 Pens for · against2 · 1

L9 Mar 25A · Portsmouth0–10
W4 Apr 23H · Nottingham Forest2–11
L5 Feb 23A · Nottingham Forest0–12
L3 Sep 22A · Brentford2–52
W6 Aug 22H · Wolves2–12

Aston Villa13 with this referee

Record3-3-7 Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.9 Pens for · against0 · 1

W3 May 25H · Fulham1–00
D15 Feb 25H · Ipswich1–10
D6 Oct 24H · Manchester United0–01
L5 May 24A · Brighton0–11
L11 Feb 24H · Manchester United1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.