Leeds
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Leeds30.7%fair odds 3.26
Draw25.3%fair odds 3.95
Aston Villa44.0%fair odds 2.27
Expected goals1.33 – 1.64total 2.97
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Aston Villa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Leeds ↓ · Aston Villa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Leeds goals, columns Aston Villa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.49
- 1–29.2%10.92
- 0–17.8%12.83
- 2–17.5%13.40
- 0–26.9%14.57
- 1–06.2%16.03
- 2–26.1%16.36
- 0–05.7%17.50
- 1–35.0%20.00
- 2–04.6%21.93
Winning margin
4.8%
Leeds by 3+
fair 20.98
8.9%
Leeds by 2
fair 11.20
17.0%
Leeds by 1
fair 5.89
25.3%
Draw
fair 3.95
21.0%
Aston Villa by 1
fair 4.77
13.4%
Aston Villa by 2
fair 7.44
9.6%
Aston Villa by 3+
fair 10.42
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Leeds goals
26%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Aston Villa goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 30.7% | 30.5% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.6% | -1.2 pp |
| Aston Villa win | 44.0% | 43.0% | +1.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 51.8% | +5.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.9% | 55.9% | +4.0 pp |
| Expected goals Leeds | 1.33 | 1.24 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals Aston Villa | 1.64 | 1.51 | +0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Leeds win30.7%3.26
- Draw25.3%3.95
- Aston Villa win44.0%2.27
- Double chance Leeds or draw56.0%1.79
- Double chance Leeds or Aston Villa74.7%1.34
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw69.3%1.44
- Draw no bet Leeds41.1%2.43
- Draw no bet Aston Villa58.9%1.70
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.3%1.25
- Over 2.557.0%1.75
- Over 3.534.6%2.89
- Over 4.518.0%5.55
- Under 1.519.7%5.06
- Under 2.543.0%2.33
- Under 3.565.4%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes59.9%1.67
- No40.1%2.50
- Yes and over 2.548.2%2.08
- Leeds win and yes16.9%5.90
- Draw and yes19.6%5.10
- Aston Villa win and yes23.4%4.27
Team goals
- Leeds over 0.573.7%1.36
- Leeds over 1.538.5%2.60
- Leeds over 2.515.1%6.63
- Aston Villa over 0.580.6%1.24
- Aston Villa over 1.548.7%2.05
- Aston Villa over 2.522.6%4.42
- Leeds clean sheet19.4%5.14
- Aston Villa clean sheet26.3%3.80
- Leeds win to nil13.7%7.28
- Aston Villa win to nil20.6%4.85
Handicap
- Leeds −1.513.7%7.30
- Leeds −2.54.8%20.98
- Aston Villa +1.586.3%1.16
- Aston Villa +2.595.2%1.05
- Aston Villa −1.523.0%4.34
- Leeds +1.577.0%1.30
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored117
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result40.2%
1X2 Brier0.593
Over 2.5 called right56.4%
BTTS called right50.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 17 | 38.2% | 47.1% |
| 40–50% | 45 | 44.5% | 51.1% |
| 50–60% | 31 | 54.2% | 58.1% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 64.4% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 8 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 87 of 117 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5891 | 0.5734 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 41.5% |
| Favourite won | 56.3% | 55.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 87 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 117 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.