Levante
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Levante31.4%fair odds 3.19
Draw28.5%fair odds 3.51
Athletic Club40.1%fair odds 2.49
Expected goals1.14 – 1.32total 2.46
Likeliest score1–113.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Athletic Club
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Levante ↓ · Athletic Club → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Levante goals, columns Athletic Club goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%7.38
- 0–110.6%9.40
- 0–09.3%10.80
- 1–09.1%11.03
- 1–28.5%11.78
- 0–27.5%13.39
- 2–17.3%13.68
- 2–05.5%18.05
- 2–24.8%20.74
- 1–33.7%26.79
Winning margin
4.0%
Levante by 3+
fair 24.86
8.9%
Levante by 2
fair 11.26
18.4%
Levante by 1
fair 5.42
28.5%
Draw
fair 3.51
21.5%
Athletic Club by 1
fair 4.64
12.0%
Athletic Club by 2
fair 8.35
6.6%
Athletic Club by 3+
fair 15.09
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Levante goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Athletic Club goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levante win | 31.4% | 32.5% | -1.1 pp |
| Draw | 28.5% | 26.9% | +1.7 pp |
| Athletic Club win | 40.1% | 40.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.5% | 51.2% | -6.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.4% | 55.7% | -5.3 pp |
| Expected goals Levante | 1.14 | 1.27 | -0.14 |
| Expected goals Athletic Club | 1.32 | 1.45 | -0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Levante win31.4%3.19
- Draw28.5%3.51
- Athletic Club win40.1%2.49
- Double chance Levante or draw59.9%1.67
- Double chance Levante or Athletic Club71.5%1.40
- Double chance Athletic Club or draw68.6%1.46
- Draw no bet Levante43.9%2.28
- Draw no bet Athletic Club56.1%1.78
Goals
- Over 0.590.7%1.10
- Over 1.571.0%1.41
- Over 2.544.5%2.25
- Over 3.523.3%4.29
- Over 4.510.3%9.71
- Under 1.529.0%3.45
- Under 2.555.5%1.80
- Under 3.576.7%1.30
Both teams to score
- Yes50.4%1.98
- No49.6%2.02
- Yes and over 2.536.9%2.71
- Levante win and yes13.9%7.20
- Draw and yes19.3%5.19
- Athletic Club win and yes17.3%5.78
Team goals
- Levante over 0.567.9%1.47
- Levante over 1.531.4%3.18
- Levante over 2.510.7%9.34
- Athletic Club over 0.573.3%1.36
- Athletic Club over 1.538.0%2.63
- Athletic Club over 2.514.7%6.79
- Levante clean sheet26.7%3.74
- Athletic Club clean sheet32.1%3.12
- Levante win to nil17.5%5.72
- Athletic Club win to nil22.8%4.38
Handicap
- Levante −1.512.9%7.75
- Levante −2.54.0%24.86
- Athletic Club +1.587.1%1.15
- Athletic Club +2.596.0%1.04
- Athletic Club −1.518.6%5.38
- Levante +1.581.4%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored133
Favourite won54.9%
Avg chance given to result42.2%
1X2 Brier0.559
Over 2.5 called right60.9%
BTTS called right55.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 19 | 37.7% | 42.1% |
| 40–50% | 58 | 44.2% | 44.8% |
| 50–60% | 24 | 54.1% | 58.3% |
| 60–70% | 18 | 64.2% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 75.0% | 92.3% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 102 of 133 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5537 | 0.5472 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.4% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 56.9% | 57.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 102 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 133 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.