Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Athletic Club were slight favourites.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 42). Levante had 7.9 days of rest, Athletic Club 7.1 and had to travel 472 km.
Away travel472 kmRest days7.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Levante31%
Draw29%
Athletic Club40%
Levante32%
Draw27%
Athletic Club41%
Levante31%
Draw29%
Athletic Club40%
Levante25%
Draw27%
Athletic Club47%
Levante32%
Draw27%
Athletic Club41%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 10
Team strength
Levante
Athletic Club
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
55
AttackIn forecast
51
41
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteAthletic Club
1.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.92
1.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
77%
Scored inContext
54%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
9.69
ShotsContext
12.92
3.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.08
33%
On target shareContext
32%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
69%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.15
Shots allowedContext
9.38
5.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.69
4.69
BlocksContext
3.10
3.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.54
71%
Save rateContext
69%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
326
PassesContext
415
254
Accurate passesContext
340
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.15
FoulsContext
11.46
10.77
Fouls sufferedContext
13.08
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.23
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.83
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
80%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.00
ShotsContext
12.20
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
33%
On target shareContext
32%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.38
73%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.33
16.60
Shots allowedContext
9.60
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.50
BlocksContext
3.50
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
71%
Save rateContext
64%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
353
PassesContext
376
281
Accurate passesContext
300
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.10
FoulsContext
12.10
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Athletic Club
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel472 km934 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Nov | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 472 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 934 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.1 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
3A. Matturro
5Unai Elguezabal
22J. Toljan
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
20Oriol Rey
16K. Arriaga
24Carlos Álvarez
21E. Eyong
15G. Koyalipou
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
4Aitor Paredes
3Dani Vivian
15Lekue
30Alejandro Rego Mora
18Mikel Jauregizar
10Nico Williams
7Álex Berenguer
23Robert Navarro
11Gorka Guruzeta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Athletic Club+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
0.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-4
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.80
Athletic Club · Away
0.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-4
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Getafe | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Girona | W 4–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Elche | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 2–3 H | L 0–4 A |
| Alaves | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 9 of 30 · 0.90 per game | 14 of 30 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Levante wins2 draws2 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 7 Mar 2022Athletic Club3–1Levante
- 19 Nov 2021Levante0–0Athletic Club
- 26 Feb 2021Levante1–1Athletic Club
- 18 Oct 2020Athletic Club2–0Levante
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.23 | 0.92 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.85 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 2.23 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 54% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 38% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 38% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 46% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Levante | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.55 | 5.62 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.45 | 4.23 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.85 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 4/11 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 1.85 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.23 | 2.23 | |
| Match total | 4.31 | 4.08 | 4.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 9/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 6/13 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Levante | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.56 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 11.56 | 8.56 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.00 | 4.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 4.07
Red cards0.30league 0.27
Cards 5+40%league 46%
Fouls26.4league 24.5
Penalties0.50league 0.34
Home wins80%league 48%
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
Athletic ClubNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante13 games · scored 16 · conceded 24
3
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
1
7
76-90
Athletic Club13 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
1
5
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
