Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Girona. Levante had 7.8 days of rest, Girona 5.8 and had to travel 388 km.
Away travel388 kmRest days7.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Levante33%
Draw28%
Girona39%
Levante41%
Draw27%
Girona32%
Levante33%
Draw28%
Girona39%
Levante27%
Draw27%
Girona46%
Levante34%
Draw27%
Girona39%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 39
Team strength
Levante
Girona
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
55
AttackIn forecast
49
41
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGirona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteGirona
1.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.04
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
62%
Scored inContext
73%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
10.38
ShotsContext
9.85
3.32
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.96
31%
On target shareContext
40%
6.72
Shots in the boxContext
6.46
63%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.24
OffsidesContext
2.58
16.19
Shots allowedContext
14.77
5.46
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.68
4.31
BlocksContext
3.54
3.92
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.28
70%
Save rateContext
70%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
352
PassesContext
448
278
Accurate passesContext
381
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.27
FoulsContext
10.92
12.35
Fouls sufferedContext
14.04
2.08
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
50%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.40
ShotsContext
10.70
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
25%
On target shareContext
43%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
58%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.88
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.30
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
3.80
BlocksContext
3.30
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
70%
Save rateContext
72%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
363
PassesContext
489
291
Accurate passesContext
420
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.40
FoulsContext
11.80
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km605 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Girona
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel388 km923 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Girona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Feb | 5.8La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 388 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 605 km | 923 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
2M. Moreno
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
20Oriol Rey
27Paco Cortés
9Iván Romero
26Kareem Tunde
19Carlos Espí
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
4Arnau Martínez
17D. Blind
12Vitor Reis
2Hugo Rincón
20A. Witsel
8Fran Beltrán
14C. Echeverri
11T. Lemar
15V. Tsyhankov
19V. Vanat
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Girona
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Girona-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
0.77points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.77
Girona · Away
1.08points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-5
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.62
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–1 H | L 0–5 A |
| Valencia | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Athletic Club | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Elche | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| Espanyol | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Osasuna | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 H | L 1–3 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Getafe | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 18 of 75 · 0.72 per game | 30 of 75 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Levante wins0 draws0 Girona wins
Goals per game4.00 – 0.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 20 Sep 2025Girona0–4Levante
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.08 | 1.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 2.65 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 54% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 62% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 27% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Levante | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.40 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.09 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.04 | 4.92 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 9.42 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 12/23 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 10/23 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 8/23 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.19 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.35 | 1.77 | |
| Match total | 4.54 | 4.15 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 18/26 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 13/26 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Levante | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 9.20 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.10 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.62league 4.21
Red cards0.31league 0.28
Cards 5+62%league 46%
Fouls25.9league 24.5
Penalties0.38league 0.37
Home wins46%league 47%
Levante1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.6.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D20 Dec 25H · Real Sociedad1–16
Girona1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W19 May 24A · Valencia3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante26 games · scored 28 · conceded 44
3
6
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
9
31-45
4
8
46-60
5
6
61-75
9
12
76-90
Girona26 games · scored 27 · conceded 42
3
4
0-15
5
6
16-30
5
6
31-45
1
10
46-60
5
7
61-75
8
9
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
5
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
