Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Levante were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Rayo Vallecano usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Levante had 15.2 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 14 and had to travel 302 km.
Away travel302 kmRest days15.2 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Levante41%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano31%
Levante42%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano31%
Levante40%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano32%
Levante34%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano38%
Levante43%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano31%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 4
Team strength
Levante
Rayo Vallecano
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
55
AttackIn forecast
61
41
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteRayo Vallecano
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
88%
Scored inContext
63%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
10.00
ShotsContext
12.38
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
33%
On target shareContext
34%
6.86
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
67%
Box shareContext
63%
16%
ConversionContext
8%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.86
16.88
Shots allowedContext
9.88
5.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.63
BlocksContext
3.25
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
72%
Save rateContext
68%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
327
PassesContext
449
256
Accurate passesContext
375
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.79
14.13
FoulsContext
12.88
11.38
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
2.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.90
ShotsContext
13.60
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
35%
On target shareContext
39%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
68%
Box shareContext
61%
18%
ConversionContext
9%
2.38
OffsidesContext
3.56
16.00
Shots allowedContext
8.20
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
4.20
BlocksContext
2.78
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
72%
Save rateContext
74%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
343
PassesContext
491
271
Accurate passesContext
415
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.88
14.40
FoulsContext
12.10
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
Rest15.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel302 km705 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.2La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 14La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 302 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 705 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
4Adrián de la Fuente
2M. Moreno
22J. Toljan
7Roger Brugué
16K. Arriaga
12Unai Vencedor
24Carlos Álvarez
9Iván Romero
21E. Eyong
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
32N. Mendy
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
23Óscar Valentín
17Unai López
21Fran Pérez
4Pedro Díaz
19Jorge de Frutos
9Alemão
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Rayo Vallecano-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 3.00
Rayo Vallecano · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Girona | W 4–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Levante wins1 draws0 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 20 May 2022Rayo Vallecano2–4Levante
- 11 Sep 2021Levante1–1Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 25% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Levante | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 25% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.43 | 6.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 11.38 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 4.25 | 4.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Levante | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.56 | 7.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 12.26 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 100% 8/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.00 | 4.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 4.08
Red cards0.00league 0.28
Cards 5+25%league 45%
Fouls26.3league 24.5
Penalties0.00league 0.30
Home wins100%league 47%
Levante1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L16 Aug 25A · Alaves1–21
Rayo VallecanoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante8 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Rayo Vallecano8 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
