Levante
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Levante40.6%fair odds 2.46
Draw28.2%fair odds 3.55
Rayo Vallecano31.2%fair odds 3.21
Expected goals1.35 – 1.15total 2.50
Likeliest score1–113.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rayo Vallecano
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Levante ↓ · Rayo Vallecano → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Levante goals, columns Rayo Vallecano goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%7.45
- 1–010.4%9.61
- 0–08.9%11.25
- 0–18.8%11.40
- 2–18.6%11.63
- 2–07.5%13.38
- 1–27.3%13.64
- 0–25.4%18.41
- 2–24.9%20.23
- 3–13.9%25.86
Winning margin
6.9%
Levante by 3+
fair 14.45
12.2%
Levante by 2
fair 8.21
21.5%
Levante by 1
fair 4.64
28.2%
Draw
fair 3.55
18.3%
Rayo Vallecano by 1
fair 5.48
8.8%
Rayo Vallecano by 2
fair 11.30
4.1%
Rayo Vallecano by 3+
fair 24.66
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Levante goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Rayo Vallecano goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levante win | 40.6% | 42.5% | -1.9 pp |
| Draw | 28.2% | 26.9% | +1.3 pp |
| Rayo Vallecano win | 31.2% | 30.6% | +0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.6% | 50.4% | -4.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.3% | 54.9% | -3.6 pp |
| Expected goals Levante | 1.35 | 1.47 | -0.13 |
| Expected goals Rayo Vallecano | 1.15 | 1.21 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Levante win40.6%2.46
- Draw28.2%3.55
- Rayo Vallecano win31.2%3.21
- Double chance Levante or draw68.8%1.45
- Double chance Levante or Rayo Vallecano71.8%1.39
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw59.4%1.68
- Draw no bet Levante56.6%1.77
- Draw no bet Rayo Vallecano43.4%2.30
Goals
- Over 0.591.1%1.10
- Over 1.571.9%1.39
- Over 2.545.6%2.19
- Over 3.524.2%4.13
- Over 4.510.9%9.20
- Under 1.528.1%3.56
- Under 2.554.4%1.84
- Under 3.575.8%1.32
Both teams to score
- Yes51.3%1.95
- No48.7%2.05
- Yes and over 2.537.9%2.64
- Levante win and yes17.9%5.60
- Draw and yes19.3%5.18
- Rayo Vallecano win and yes14.1%7.09
Team goals
- Levante over 0.574.1%1.35
- Levante over 1.539.0%2.56
- Levante over 2.515.4%6.48
- Rayo Vallecano over 0.568.3%1.46
- Rayo Vallecano over 1.531.9%3.13
- Rayo Vallecano over 2.511.0%9.10
- Levante clean sheet31.7%3.16
- Rayo Vallecano clean sheet25.9%3.85
- Levante win to nil22.8%4.39
- Rayo Vallecano win to nil17.1%5.86
Handicap
- Levante −1.519.1%5.24
- Levante −2.56.9%14.45
- Rayo Vallecano +1.580.9%1.24
- Rayo Vallecano +2.593.1%1.07
- Rayo Vallecano −1.512.9%7.75
- Levante +1.587.1%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored87
Favourite won51.7%
Avg chance given to result41.5%
1X2 Brier0.574
Over 2.5 called right59.8%
BTTS called right59.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 13 | 38.1% | 46.2% |
| 40–50% | 35 | 44.3% | 37.1% |
| 50–60% | 18 | 53.8% | 55.6% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 63.9% | 63.6% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 74.9% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 56 of 87 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5724 | 0.5736 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 41.9% |
| Favourite won | 53.6% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 56 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 87 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.