Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Levante. Levante had 3.1 days of rest, Villarreal 4.2 and had to travel 57 km.
Away travel57 kmRest days3.1 · 4.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Levante29%
Draw31%
Villarreal40%
Levante28%
Draw27%
Villarreal45%
Levante30%
Draw31%
Villarreal39%
Levante24%
Draw30%
Villarreal47%
Levante30%
Draw29%
Villarreal41%
Over 2.5 36%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 38
Team strength
Levante
Villarreal
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
55
AttackIn forecast
76
41
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteVillarreal
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.91
1.74
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
65%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.04
ShotsContext
11.70
3.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.35
31%
On target shareContext
37%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.96
64%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
2.22
OffsidesContext
3.20
16.00
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.26
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.59
4.35
BlocksContext
4.24
3.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
71%
Save rateContext
66%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
349
PassesContext
402
274
Accurate passesContext
334
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.26
FoulsContext
12.17
11.87
Fouls sufferedContext
11.48
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.35
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
50%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.50
ShotsContext
9.90
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
29%
On target shareContext
36%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
57%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.57
14.50
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.90
BlocksContext
3.70
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
69%
Save rateContext
56%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
378
PassesContext
356
300
Accurate passesContext
287
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.10
FoulsContext
12.50
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km944 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Villarreal
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel57 km623 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 4.2La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 944 km | 623 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
6Diego Pampín
2M. Moreno
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
18Iker Losada
14U. Raghouber
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
27Paco Cortés
19Carlos Espí
17Víctor García
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
23Sergi Cardona
4Rafa Marín
6Pau Navarro
15S. Mouriño
20Alberto Moleiro
18P. Gueye
14Santi Comesaña
19N. Pépé
9G. Mikautadze
22Ayoze Pérez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Villarreal+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
0.64points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Villarreal · Away
1.55points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-4
- Scored
- 1.55
- Conceded
- 1.45
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Athletic Club | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Elche | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A | W 3–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Espanyol | D 1–1 H | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Sevilla | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Osasuna | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 H | W 4–0 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Getafe | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Girona | W 4–0 A | W 5–0 H |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Barcelona | L 2–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Alaves | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 18 of 69 · 0.78 per game | 45 of 69 · 1.96 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Levante wins0 draws3 Villarreal wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 2 Apr 2022Levante2–0Villarreal
- 3 Jan 2022Villarreal5–0Levante
- 18 Apr 2021Levante1–5Villarreal
- 2 Jan 2021Villarreal2–1Levante
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.74 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.87 | 3.04 | 2.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 96% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 57% | 36% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 52% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 17% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Levante | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 36% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 4.05 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.95 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 8.75 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 10/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 8/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 6/20 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.26 | 2.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.39 | 4.48 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 16/23 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 11/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Levante | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 8.70 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.40 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.32league 4.15
Red cards0.24league 0.28
Cards 5+42%league 45%
Fouls26.4league 24.5
Penalties0.39league 0.37
Home wins47%league 47%
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
VillarrealNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante23 games · scored 26 · conceded 40
3
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
8
31-45
4
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
7
11
76-90
Villarreal23 games · scored 44 · conceded 26
4
3
0-15
7
2
16-30
8
3
31-45
10
6
46-60
8
4
61-75
7
8
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
