Lille
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
UEFA Europa League
Round of 16 Thu, Mar 12 · 17:45
Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
Lille33.1%fair odds 3.02
Draw28.1%fair odds 3.56
Aston Villa38.7%fair odds 2.58
Expected goals1.20 – 1.32total 2.53
Likeliest score1–113.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Aston Villa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lille ↓ · Aston Villa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 13.4 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lille goals, columns Aston Villa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%7.46
- 0–19.9%10.11
- 1–08.9%11.18
- 0–08.7%11.55
- 1–28.4%11.88
- 2–17.7%13.05
- 0–27.0%14.31
- 2–05.8%17.25
- 2–25.1%19.72
- 1–33.7%26.95
Winning margin
4.6%
Lille by 3+
fair 21.54
9.6%
Lille by 2
fair 10.46
18.9%
Lille by 1
fair 5.28
28.1%
Draw
fair 3.56
20.9%
Aston Villa by 1
fair 4.79
11.5%
Aston Villa by 2
fair 8.68
6.4%
Aston Villa by 3+
fair 15.74
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
14%4
11%5+
Lille goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
Aston Villa goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille win | 33.1% | 32.6% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 28.1% | 29.1% | -1.0 pp |
| Aston Villa win | 38.7% | 38.3% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.3% | 42.6% | +3.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.0% | 49.1% | +2.9 pp |
| Expected goals Lille | 1.20 | 1.13 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Aston Villa | 1.32 | 1.25 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lille win33.1%3.02
- Draw28.1%3.56
- Aston Villa win38.7%2.58
- Double chance Lille or draw61.3%1.63
- Double chance Lille or Aston Villa71.9%1.39
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw66.9%1.50
- Draw no bet Lille46.1%2.17
- Draw no bet Aston Villa53.9%1.86
Goals
- Over 0.591.3%1.09
- Over 1.572.5%1.38
- Over 2.546.3%2.16
- Over 3.524.8%4.03
- Over 4.511.3%8.89
- Under 1.527.5%3.64
- Under 2.553.7%1.86
- Under 3.575.2%1.33
Both teams to score
- Yes52.0%1.92
- No48.0%2.09
- Yes and over 2.538.6%2.59
- Lille win and yes15.2%6.60
- Draw and yes19.5%5.14
- Aston Villa win and yes17.4%5.74
Team goals
- Lille over 0.570.0%1.43
- Lille over 1.533.9%2.95
- Lille over 2.512.2%8.23
- Aston Villa over 0.573.4%1.36
- Aston Villa over 1.538.1%2.62
- Aston Villa over 2.514.8%6.75
- Lille clean sheet26.6%3.75
- Aston Villa clean sheet30.0%3.34
- Lille win to nil18.0%5.56
- Aston Villa win to nil21.3%4.69
Handicap
- Lille −1.514.2%7.04
- Lille −2.54.6%21.54
- Aston Villa +1.585.8%1.17
- Aston Villa +2.595.4%1.05
- Aston Villa −1.517.9%5.60
- Lille +1.582.1%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.