Lille vs Aston Villa – 12 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 12 · 17:45 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq

Lille

0–1Full time

Aston Villa

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lille. Lille had 4.1 days of rest, Aston Villa 7.9 and had to travel 407 km.

Away travel407 kmRest days4.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d3 · 2

Lille33%

Draw28%

Aston Villa39%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.32

Lille24%

Draw26%

Aston Villa51%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.67

Lille31%

Draw28%

Aston Villa40%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.35

Lille27%

Draw27%

Aston Villa46%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.48

Lille33%

Draw29%

Aston Villa38%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.25

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 52

Team strength

Lille

Aston Villa

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 83

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

42 AttackIn forecast 83

60 DefenceIn forecast 78

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lille

Aston Villa

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

0.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

70% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.20 ShotsContext 14.40

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

29% On target shareContext 33%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.10

64% Box shareContext 64%

6% ConversionContext 7%

1.56 OffsidesContext 2.00

7.70 Shots allowedContext 12.40

3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

2.30 BlocksContext 3.30

2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

65% Save rateContext 77%

58% PossessionIn forecast 55%

507 PassesContext 463

432 Accurate passesContext 394

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.50 FoulsContext 11.40

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,884 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Aston Villa

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel407 km38 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Mar	7.9Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	407 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,884 km	38 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.1	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

15R. Perraud 23A. Mandi 18C. Mbemba 22Tiago Santos

6N. Bentaleb 21B. André

28G. Perrin 10H. Haraldsson 17N. Mukau

9O. Giroud

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23E. Martínez(G)

12L. Digne 14Pau Torres 4E. Konsa 26L. Bogarde

24A. Onana 21Douglas Luiz

10E. Buendía 27M. Rogers 19J. Sancho

11O. Watkins

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Aston Villa Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lille+1.8 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Aston Villa-1.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home No home games yet this season.

Aston Villa · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.53
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	46%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Lille	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.00
Conceded per game	0.80	1.20
Match goals	1.60	2.20	2.53
Over 1.5	40%	60%
Over 2.5	10%	20%	46%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	50%	30%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	Aston Villa
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Lille	Aston Villa
Corners
Corners won	7.00	5.89
Corners conceded	2.50	4.89
Match total	9.50	10.78
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.80
Opponent cards	1.70	2.50
Match total	3.60	4.30
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 52 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.44

Red cards0.35

Cards 5+50%

Fouls24.7

Penalties0.29

Home wins50%

Lille2 with this referee

Record0-2-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

D4 Mar 25A · Borussia Dortmund1–10
D13 Aug 24A · Fenerbahce1–15

Aston Villa1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W15 Apr 25H · Paris Saint Germain3–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.