Lille
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League
Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 23 · 20:00
Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 50). Lille had 4 days of rest, PAOK 21 and had to travel 1,886 km.
Away travel1,886 kmRest days4 · 21Matches / 14d1 · 0
Lille53%
Draw24%
PAOK22%
Lille53%
Draw25%
PAOK22%
Lille54%
Draw24%
PAOK22%
Lille46%
Draw26%
PAOK29%
Lille53%
Draw25%
PAOK22%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)
No weather data yet
Referee · MontenegroNikola Dabanovic
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 5
Team strength
Lille
PAOK
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
42
AttackIn forecast
45
60
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPAOK
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LillePAOK
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.89
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.59
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.50
ShotsContext
11.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
36%
On target shareContext
30%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
85%
Box shareContext
76%
12%
ConversionContext
4%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
15.50
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.00
BlocksContext
1.50
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
78%
Save rateContext
75%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
484
PassesContext
396
386
Accurate passesContext
332
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.17
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.00
FoulsContext
12.50
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
—
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
15.20
ShotsContext
15.70
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
30%
On target shareContext
37%
11.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.78
76%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.56
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.30
Shots allowedContext
7.70
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.60
BlocksContext
1.88
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
68%
Save rateContext
77%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
471
PassesContext
485
394
Accurate passesContext
408
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.98
12.50
FoulsContext
12.10
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,023 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PAOK
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,886 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
PAOK |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,886 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,023 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
24C. Verdonk
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
22Tiago Santos
21B. André
28U. Raghouber
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
11O. Sahraoui
27Félix Correia
29H. Igamane
PAOK
Confirmed XI
99A. Tsiftsis(G)
21A. Baba
5G. Michailidis
16T. Kędziora
3J. Kenny
8S. Meïté
2M. Camara
14A. Živković
65G. Konstantelias
77K. Despodov
9F. Chalov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PAOK
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- PAOK+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
PAOK · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | PAOK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Lille | PAOK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | PAOK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 9.00 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Lille | PAOK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 8.40 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 5.30 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nikola Dabanovic Montenegro · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.60league 4.09
Red cards0.00league 0.11
Cards 5+20%league 39%
Fouls20.2league 25.2
Penalties0.00league 0.36
Home wins80%league 45%
LilleNo previous matches with this referee.
PAOKNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lille2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
PAOK2 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
11
76-90
PAOK10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures UEFA Europa League
View all fixtures →
Lyon
FC Basel 1893
20
SC Braga
FK Crvena Zvezda
20
Brann
Rangers
30
GO Ahead Eagles
Aston Villa
21
FCSB
Bologna
12
Red Bull Salzburg
Ferencvarosi TC
23
Fenerbahce
VfB Stuttgart
10
Genk
Real Betis
00
Feyenoord
Panathinaikos
31
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
20
Lille
PAOK
34
SC Freiburg
Utrecht
20
Celtic
Sturm Graz
21
Malmo FF
Dinamo Zagreb
11
AS Roma
Plzen
12
Celta Vigo
Nice
21
BSC Young Boys
Ludogorets
32
Maccabi Tel Aviv
FC Midtjylland
03