Lille
Attack+8%
Defense risk+6%
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Stade Brestois 29. Lille were without A. Ueda. Stade Brestois 29 were without B. Chardonnet. Lille had 4 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 7 and had to travel 599 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel599 kmRest days4 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Lille51%
Draw24%
Stade Brestois 2925%
Lille58%
Draw23%
Stade Brestois 2918%
Lille51%
Draw24%
Stade Brestois 2925%
Lille43%
Draw25%
Stade Brestois 2931%
Lille51%
Draw24%
Stade Brestois 2925%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lille)
10°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 89%
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 154
Team strength
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
42
AttackIn forecast
47
60
DefenceIn forecast
36
36
Form indexContext
42
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStade Brestois 29
Attack−15%
Defense risk0%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
LilleStade Brestois 29
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
3.12
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-1.12
100%
Scored inContext
83%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.33
ShotsContext
18.67
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
49%
On target shareContext
35%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
12.17
67%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.40
16.17
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
3.60
BlocksContext
2.50
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
83%
Save rateContext
74%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
452
PassesContext
422
388
Accurate passesContext
347
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.67
FoulsContext
13.17
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.67
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
2.01
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
80%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.50
ShotsContext
16.30
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
42%
On target shareContext
32%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.60
65%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.38
14.70
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.75
BlocksContext
3.40
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
72%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
453
PassesContext
421
388
Accurate passesContext
348
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.80
FoulsContext
11.60
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
LWLWL
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel8 km501 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 6 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected
Stade Brestois 29
DWLLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel599 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 42 · 7 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
Stade Brestois 29 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 8 km | 599 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 501 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Confirmed XI
12O. Gill(G)
15R. Perraud
23T. Nianzou
3N. Ngoy
38Maxima Goffi
17N. Mukau
21B. André
7D. Bakwa
10H. Haraldsson
8E. Mbappé
9O. Giroud
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
1E. Selvik(G)
2B. Locko
4G. Lloris
29L. Tousart
70K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
9P. Mboup
23K. Doumbia
17M. Baldé
19L. Ajorque
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −24.5% · Defence line −4.6% of weighted minutes
- ATT A. Ueda Starter 7.00 Att −22.4%
- DEF Tiago Santos Rotation 6.87 Def −4.6%
- ATT H. Igamane Rotation 7.15 Att −2.1%
Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −10.0% · Defence line −14.7% of weighted minutes
- DEF B. Chardonnet Starter 6.89 Def −12.2%
- ATT G. Versini Rotation 6.41 Att −6.2%
- DEF Raphael Marc Le Guen Rotation 6.57 Def −2.5%
- ATT Mama Baldé Rotation 6.69 Att −3.0%
- ATT N. Edjouma Depth 6.86 Att −0.8%
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Stade Brestois 29+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Stade Brestois 29 · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Lille | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| LE Havre | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Angers | W 2–0 A | W 5–1 H |
| Points | 10 of 12 · 2.50 per game | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Lille wins5 draws2 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.20
Over 2.530%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 30%
- 14 Feb 2026Lille1–1Stade Brestois 29
- 17 Aug 2025Stade Brestois 293–3Lille
- 10 May 2025Stade Brestois 292–0Lille
- 6 Dec 2024Lille3–1Stade Brestois 29
- 17 Mar 2024Stade Brestois 291–1Lille
- 22 Oct 2023Lille1–0Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 3.50 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 83% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Lille | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.10 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 3.83 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.16 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Lille | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.51 | 9.60 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.40 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 154 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 3.21
Red cards0.23league 0.14
Cards 5+29%league 27%
Fouls23.0league 23.6
Penalties0.36league 0.34
Home wins40%league 45%
Lille11 with this referee
Record4-3-4
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W10 May 26A · Monaco1–03
- D17 Aug 25A · Stade Brestois 293–31
- W5 Oct 24H · Toulouse2–13
- L24 Apr 24A · Monaco0–12
- D17 Mar 24A · Stade Brestois 291–10
Stade Brestois 299 with this referee
Record0-7-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D2 Nov 25H · Lyon0–01
- D17 Aug 25H · Lille3–32
- D23 Feb 25A · Strasbourg0–01
- L2 Nov 24H · Nice0–10
- L14 Sep 24A · Paris Saint Germain1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lille6 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Stade Brestois 296 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
3
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
