Liverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Liverpool were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Liverpool had 5.9 days of rest, Arsenal 8 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days5.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Liverpool45%
Draw25%
Arsenal30%
Liverpool43%
Draw27%
Arsenal30%
Liverpool45%
Draw25%
Arsenal30%
Liverpool37%
Draw26%
Arsenal37%
Liverpool43%
Draw27%
Arsenal30%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 129
Team strength
Liverpool
Arsenal
92
L90 StrengthIn forecast
92
84
Current StrengthIn forecast
94
85
AttackIn forecast
86
84
DefenceIn forecast
95
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LiverpoolArsenal
3.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
2.10
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
+2.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.90
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.50
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
58%
On target shareContext
30%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
69%
Box shareContext
64%
29%
ConversionContext
22%
—
OffsidesContext
—
10.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.00
BlocksContext
5.00
1.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
33%
Save rateContext
100%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
468
PassesContext
447
386
Accurate passesContext
384
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.30
11.00
FoulsContext
13.50
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.95
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
100%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.20
ShotsContext
15.30
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
36%
On target shareContext
35%
12.20
Shots in the boxContext
11.40
74%
Box shareContext
73%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.10
Shots allowedContext
10.90
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.50
BlocksContext
3.20
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
66%
Save rateContext
77%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
503
PassesContext
484
429
Accurate passesContext
423
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.01
Team ratingContext
7.11
10.80
FoulsContext
9.70
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Liverpool
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km390 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arsenal
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel286 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Liverpool |
Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Aug | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 390 km | 524 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 12.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
8D. Szoboszlai
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
7F. Wirtz
11Mohamed Salah
22H. Ekitiké
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
6Gabriel Magalhães
2W. Saliba
12J. Timber
41D. Rice
36Martín Zubimendi
23Mikel Merino
11Gabriel Martinelli
14V. Gyökeres
20C. Madueke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Liverpool
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arsenal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Liverpool+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arsenal+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Liverpool · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Arsenal · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Liverpool wins4 draws2 Arsenal wins
Goals per game2.20 – 1.40
Over 2.580%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets30% · 0%
- 11 May 2025Liverpool2–2Arsenal
- 27 Oct 2024Arsenal2–2Liverpool
- 4 Feb 2024Arsenal3–1Liverpool
- 23 Dec 2023Liverpool1–1Arsenal
- 9 Apr 2023Liverpool2–2Arsenal
- 9 Oct 2022Arsenal3–2Liverpool
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Liverpool | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.50 | 3.00 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Liverpool | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.50 | 3.00 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Liverpool | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 5.50 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.50 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Liverpool | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 7.78 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 129 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 3.43
Red cards0.13league 0.11
Cards 5+36%league 39%
Fouls21.7league 22.6
Penalties0.26league 0.32
Home wins38%league 50%
Liverpool16 with this referee
Record10-3-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L6 Apr 25A · Fulham2–30
- W26 Feb 25H · Newcastle2–00
- D14 Jan 25A · Nottingham Forest1–11
- W1 Dec 24H · Manchester City2–01
- W19 May 24H · Wolves2–01
Arsenal14 with this referee
Record7-5-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W20 Apr 25A · Ipswich4–00
- W16 Mar 25H · Chelsea1–03
- D18 Jan 25H · Aston Villa2–22
- D8 Dec 24A · Fulham1–12
- D31 Aug 24H · Brighton1–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Liverpool2 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Arsenal2 games · scored 6 · conceded 0
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 23 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
7
5
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
