Liverpool vs Chelsea – 9 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 36 Sat, May 9 · 12:30 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 4th · 58 pts · 35 played LWWWL

1–1Full time

Chelsea 9th · 48 pts · 35 played LLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 73). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Chelsea. Liverpool had 5.9 days of rest, Chelsea 4.9 and had to travel 286 km.

Away travel286 kmRest days5.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 1

Liverpool58%

Draw20%

Chelsea22%

Expected goals 2.31 – 1.39

Liverpool54%

Draw25%

Chelsea21%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.01

Liverpool58%

Draw20%

Chelsea22%

Expected goals 2.30 – 1.38

Liverpool49%

Draw22%

Chelsea29%

Expected goals 2.06 – 1.55

Liverpool56%

Draw22%

Chelsea22%

Expected goals 2.09 – 1.25

Over 2.5 71% Both score 68% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

No weather data yet

RefereeCraig Pawson

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 145

Team strength

Liverpool

Chelsea

84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

85 AttackIn forecast 77

84 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Chelsea

1.69 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.54

1.34 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.37

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.84

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

89% Scored inContext 80%

29% Clean sheetsContext 26%

15.43 ShotsContext 13.89

4.68 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.59

29% On target shareContext 32%

10.03 Shots in the boxContext 9.32

65% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.41 OffsidesContext 2.20

11.54 Shots allowedContext 10.77

4.21 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.35

3.45 BlocksContext 2.91

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.03

67% Save rateContext 68%

60% PossessionIn forecast 58%

536 PassesContext 547

460 Accurate passesContext 478

86% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.96

9.80 FoulsContext 10.86

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86

1.49 Yellow cardsContext 2.34

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 35 and 35 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.68

70% Scored inContext 40%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.20 ShotsContext 14.50

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

36% On target shareContext 29%

9.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

61% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 6%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.38

13.70 Shots allowedContext 9.80

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80

3.40 BlocksContext 2.11

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

71% Save rateContext 53%

53% PossessionIn forecast 55%

467 PassesContext 543

385 Accurate passesContext 479

82% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.67

11.50 FoulsContext 9.40

9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel286 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Premier League 2025-2026, 3 May	4.9Premier League 2025-2026, 4 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	99 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.3	10.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25G. Mamardashvili(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 17C. Jones

10A. Mac Allister 38R. Gravenberch

73R. Ngumoha 8D. Szoboszlai 30J. Frimpong

18C. Gakpo

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12F. Jørgensen(G)

21J. Hato 6L. Colwill 29W. Fofana 27M. Gusto

25M. Caicedo 17Andrey Santos

3Marc Cucurella 8E. Fernández 10C. Palmer

20João Pedro

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool-0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Chelsea+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 2.00points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 10-4-3
Scored: 1.88
Conceded: 1.06

Chelsea · Away 1.47points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 7-4-6
Scored: 1.76
Conceded: 1.41

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Liverpool	Chelsea
Manchester United	L 2–3 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Crystal Palace	W 3–1 HL 1–2 A	W 3–1 AD 0–0 H
Everton	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H	L 0–3 AW 2–0 H
Fulham	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
Brighton	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H
Tottenham	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	W 1–0 A
Wolves	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H	W 3–1 AW 3–0 H
West Ham	W 5–2 HW 2–0 A	W 3–2 HW 5–1 A
Nottingham Forest	W 1–0 AL 0–3 H	L 1–3 HW 3–0 A
Sunderland	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Manchester City	L 1–2 HL 0–3 A	L 0–3 HD 1–1 A
Newcastle	W 4–1 HW 3–2 A	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A
Bournemouth	L 2–3 AW 4–2 H	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
Burnley	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
Arsenal	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Leeds	D 0–0 HD 3–3 A	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A
Aston Villa	W 2–0 H	W 4–1 AL 1–2 H
Brentford	L 2–3 A	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Points	58 of 102 · 1.71 per game	45 of 102 · 1.32 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

2 Liverpool wins5 draws3 Chelsea wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.20 Over 2.550% Both scored70% Clean sheets20% · 30%

4 Oct 2025Chelsea2–1Liverpool
4 May 2025Chelsea3–1Liverpool
20 Oct 2024Liverpool2–1Chelsea
31 Jan 2024Liverpool4–1Chelsea
13 Aug 2023Chelsea1–1Liverpool
4 Apr 2023Chelsea0–0Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.69	1.54
Conceded per game	1.34	1.37
Match goals	3.03	2.91	3.69
Over 1.5	83%	86%
Over 2.5	63%	66%	71%
Over 3.5	29%	34%
Both teams scored	66%	60%	68%
Clean sheets	29%	26%
Failed to score	11%	20%
Games	35	35

	Liverpool	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	0.90
Conceded per game	1.20	2.00
Match goals	3.10	2.90	3.69
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	71%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	68%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	6.44
Corners conceded	4.59	4.21
Match total	10.59	10.65	10.05
Over 8.5	76% 26/34	82% 28/34
Over 9.5	56% 19/34	74% 25/34
Over 10.5	47% 16/34	56% 19/34
Cards
Cards	1.51	2.54
Opponent cards	2.09	2.17
Match total	3.60	4.71	3.91
Over 3.5	49% 17/35	69% 24/35
Over 4.5	26% 9/35	54% 19/35

	Liverpool	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	7.30
Corners conceded	4.20	3.60
Match total	9.10	10.90	10.05
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.90
Opponent cards	1.30	1.30
Match total	2.90	3.20	3.91
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Craig Pawson 145 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.90league 3.79

Red cards0.10league 0.12

Cards 5+38%league 39%

Fouls22.6league 21.5

Penalties0.23league 0.21

Home wins41%league 43%

Liverpool15 with this referee

Record11-2-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.9 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

L8 Feb 26H · Manchester City1–23
D4 Jan 26A · Fulham2–21
W13 Dec 25H · Brighton2–01
W21 Apr 24A · Fulham3–10
W28 Feb 24H · Southampton3–00

Chelsea9 with this referee

Record4-2-3 Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds1

L21 Apr 26A · Brighton0–31
D27 Apr 24A · Aston Villa2–25
W3 Dec 23H · Brighton3–25
D11 Feb 23A · West Ham1–11
W6 Aug 22A · Everton1–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.